Ngo-Okthoba, uchungechunge lwezimboni ze-phenol ne-ketone lwalushaqekile ngokuphelele.I-MMA kuphela yemikhiqizo ye-downstream enqabile enyangeni.Ukunyuka kweminye imikhiqizo bekuhlukile, kanti i-MIBK ikhuphuka kakhulu, ilandelwa i-acetone.Ngenyanga, inkambiso yemakethe ye-benzene ehlanzekile yempahla iqhubekile nokwehla ngemuva kokukhuphuka, futhi izinga eliphakeme kakhulu lezingxoxo ze-East China lifinyelele ku-8250-8300 yuan/ton ezinsukwini eziyishumi zokuqala.Maphakathi nasekupheleni kwezinsuku eziyishumi zonyaka, imakethe igxile emiphumeleni emibi.Abakhiqizi abaphansi banenkinga yokugaya ukwanda kwezinto ezingavuthiwe.Imakethe ye-benzene emsulwa isijike yaba phansi, ehlobene kakhulu nokuthambekela kwemakethe ye-phenol.Mayelana ne-phenol, imakethe ngenyanga ithintwa umkhathi wamandla, uhlangothi lwezindleko kanye nephethini yokuhlinzeka kanye nesidingo.Uma kucatshangelwa ukuntuleka kokusekelwa kwezindleko, i-bisphenol A yemakethe ayiphezulu, imboni ayinathemba ngemakethe yesikhathi esizayo, futhi ukuhweba nokutshalwa kwezimali kuba buthaka.Ngesikhathi esifanayo, nakuba intengo ye-bisphenol A yenyuka ngenyanga ngenyanga ngo-Okthoba, ukugxila okuphelele kwakungenamandla, futhi ukunikezwa kwakulindeleke ukuba kwande.Kodwa-ke, i-PC engezansi ne-epoxy resin iqhubekile nokuncipha, ikakhulukazi ngenxa yezinkontileka zokusebenzisa.Imakethe ye-bisphenol A yayingenawo amandla okuthuthukisa.Eminye imikhiqizo ibuye iqondiswe yinkambiso ephelele yochungechunge lwezimboni.
Ithebula 1 Uhlu Lwezinga Lokukhuphuka Nokwehla Kwe-Phenol Ketone Industry Chain ngo-Okthoba

Umthombo wedatha yesithombe: Jin Lianchuang

Ukuhlaziywa kokukhuphuka nokuwa kwe-phenol ketone industry chain ngo-Okthoba

Umthombo wedatha: Jin Lianchuang
Njengoba kuboniswe emfanekisweni ongenhla, ngokwezibalo zokukhuphuka kwentengo okumaphakathi kwenyanga kanye nokuwa kwe-phenol neketone industry chain ngo-Okthoba, imikhiqizo eyisishiyagalombili ikhuphuke ngesikhombisa futhi yehla eyodwa.

Umthombo wedatha: Jin Lianchuang
Ngaphezu kwalokho, ngokusho kwenyanga yezibalo zentengo ezimaphakathi ze-phenol ne-ketone industry ngo-Okthoba, ukwanda komkhiqizo ngamunye kulawulwa ngaphakathi kwe-15%.Phakathi kwazo, ukukhuphuka kwe-MIBK, umkhiqizo ongezansi komfula, yiyona evelele kakhulu, kuyilapho ukukhuphuka kwe-benzene ehlanzekile, umkhiqizo okhuphuka nomfula, kuncane kakhulu;Ngenyanga, imakethe ye-MMA kuphela ewile, futhi intengo ejwayelekile yanyanga zonke yehle ngo-11.47% ngenyanga ngenyanga.
I-benzene ehlanzekile: Ngemuva kokukhula okujwayelekile kwemakethe ye-benzene yasekhaya emsulwa ngo-Okthoba, yaqhubeka nokwehla.Phakathi nenyanga, intengo esohlwini lwe-Sinopec ye-benzene emsulwa inyuke ngo-350 yuan/ton yaya ku-8200 yuan/ton, yase yehla ngo-750 yuan/ton yaya ku-7450 yuan/ton kusuka ngo-Okthoba 13 kuya ekupheleni kwale nyanga.Ezinsukwini eziyishumi zokuqala, uwoyela ongahluziwe wamazwe ngamazwe waqhubeka nokukhuphuka, futhi i-styrene engezansi yomfula yayilungiswa ngokuyinhloko.Abathengisi abazansi nomfula badinga nje ukugcina futhi banikeze ukusekelwa kwemakethe.Imakethe ye-benzene emsulwa yenyuka intengo, futhi imakethe yaseMpumalanga ye-China yaxoxisana ngokuthi intengo ephakeme kakhulu izokhuphukela ku-8250-8300 yuan/ton, kodwa ukukhuphuka kwemakethe akuzange kuqhubeke.Maphakathi nasekupheleni kwezinsuku eziyishumi, uwoyela ongahluziwe wamazwe ngamazwe wehla, imakethe yangaphandle ye-benzene yasebenza ngokubuthakathaka, futhi i-styrene engezansi yomfula yashaqeka, okwenza imakethe yaseMpumalanga yeChina ibuyele ku-yuan/ton, futhi imakethe ye-benzene ehlanzekile yaqala yehla njalo.Kusukela ngomhlaka-28 Okthoba, inkomba yezingxoxo zemakethe ye-benzene ehlanzekile yase-East China ingu-7300-7350 yuan/ton, ikhotheshini yemakethe enkulu eNyakatho China ingu-7500-7650 yuan/ton, futhi inhloso yokuthenga i-oda elikhulu engezansi ngu-7450-7500 yuan/ton. .
Kulindeleke ukuthi imakethe ye-benzene ibe buthakathaka ezinsukwini zokuqala eziyishumi zikaNovemba, futhi imakethe izoshintshashintsha ezinsukwini eziyishumi zesibili.Engxenyeni yokuqala yonyaka, ipuleti langaphandle le-benzene elimsulwa lalibuthakathaka, futhi ukusebenza kwe-styrene engezansi komfula kwakubuthakathaka.Uhlu lwe-benzene emsulwa echwebeni lase-East China lwaqoqwa, futhi iyunithi entsha i-Shenghong Petrochemical yayisiqalile ukusebenza.Ukuhlinzekwa kwe-benzene ehlanzekile emakethe kuzokhula, futhi ukunakekelwa okuhleliwe kwamanye amayunithi angaphansi komfula kuzokhula.Isidingo se-benzene emsulwa sizokwehla uma siqhathaniswa nesikhathi esedlule.Izisekelo zokuhlinzeka nezidingo zibuthakathaka.Imakethe yasekhaya ye-benzene emsulwa kulindeleke ukuthi ihlale ibuthakathaka.Maphakathi nezinsuku eziyishumi ngasekupheleni, uma imishini emisha ye-benzene yasekhaya yethulwa njengoba kuhleliwe, ukunikezwa kwemakethe kuzokhuphuka kancane futhi ukuncintisana kwemakethe kuzoshuba kakhulu.Ngasikhathi sinye, ezinye izinto ezisetshenziswa ezansi nomfula zihlelelwe ukuthi ziqale kabusha futhi zande, isidingo se-benzene emsulwa sizokhula, izisekelo zokuhlinzeka nezidingo zizothuthukiswa, futhi imakethe yasekhaya ye-benzene emsulwa izonyakaziswa futhi ihlelwe kabusha esikhathini esifushane.Ngaso leso sikhathi, imakethe nayo idinga ukunaka inkambiso kawoyela ongahluziwe wamazwe ngamazwe, kanye nezinguquko zenzuzo nokulahlekelwa kochungechunge lwezimboni ezansi nomfula.
I-Propylene: Ngo-Okthoba, izinga eliphezulu lemakethe ye-propylene labuyela emuva, futhi isikhungo samanani saphinde sakhuphuka kancane uma siqhathaniswa nenyanga edlule.Kusukela kuvalwa usuku lwama-31, ukuthengiselana okujwayelekile e-Shandong kwase kufinyelele ku-7000-7100 yuan/ton, phansi kuka-525 yuan/ton uma kuqhathaniswa nokuvalwa kwenyanga edlule.Ibanga lokuguquguquka kwentengo e-Shandong enyangeni lalingu-7000-7750 yuan/ton, ne-amplitude engu-10.71%.Ezinsukwini eziyishumi zokuqala zale nyanga (1008-1014), imakethe ye-propylene yayibuswa ngokukhuphuka kokuqala bese iyancipha.Esigabeni sokuqala, uwoyela ongahluziwe wamazwe ngamazwe uqhubekile nokukhuphuka, futhi imakethe enkulu ye-propylene yayisohlangothini oluqinile, nokusebenza kahle kwesidingo.Okuyisisekelo kwakubuswa yinzuzo.Izidingongqangi zokuhlinzeka nezidingo bezingekho ngaphansi kwengcindezi, futhi amabhizinisi okukhiqiza aqhubekile nokukhuphuka.Kamuva, inkambiso yamazwe ngamazwe kawoyela ongahluziwe kanye ne-polypropylene yaba buthaka, nokutholakala kwendawo kwaphinde kwagcwala.Ingcindezi emafekthri ngayinye ukuthi ithumele imikhumbi yanda, okuholele ukwehla futhi kwehlisela phansi isimo semakethe.Intshiseko yokuthengwa komfula wehla, futhi ubuthakathaka bemakethe behla.Phakathi nezinsuku eziyishumi ezimaphakathi nasekupheleni (1014-1021), imakethe ye-propylene yayizinzile ikakhulukazi, ngesiqondiso esicacile mayelana nezinto eziyisisekelo kanye nokunikezwa okulinganiselwe kanye nesidingo.Okokuqala, intengo ye-propylene yaqhubeka nokuwa ekuqaleni, futhi isimo sengqondo somkhiqizi mayelana nokulungiswa kwamanani sakhuphuka kancane kancane.I-downstream idinga ukugcwalisa i-warehouse ngentengo ephansi, futhi isimo sokuhweba ezimakethe silungile;Okwesibili, izindaba zokuvula nokuvala ze-Shandong PDH zixutshwe, nokungaqiniseki okuqinile.Abasebenzisi bayaqaphela ekuhwebeni, futhi ikakhulukazi babuka imakethe ngokunengqondo, ngokuguquguquka okuncane.Ekupheleni kwenyanga (1021-1031), imakethe ye-propylene yayibuthakathaka kakhulu.Ngenxa yokungalingani phakathi kokunikezwa kanye nesidingo, ukunikezwa kwendawo kwaphinde kwavela, ingcindezi yokuthunyelwa kwempahla yenyuka, ukuncintisana kwamanani kwaqhubeka, okuholele ukwehla ukuze kugqugquzelwe ukuthunyelwa, futhi isimo sengqondo semakethe sisonke sahudulelwa phansi.Ukwengeza, izindawo eziningi zithintwa izenzakalo zezempilo zomphakathi, futhi umfula ongezansi udinga nje ukuthenga, ngakho isimo sokuhweba emakethe siba buthakathaka.
NgoNovemba, izinqubomgomo zezimali ezivela emnothweni omkhulu waseYurophu naseMelika, unswinyo lukawoyela waseRussia YaseNtshonalanga kanye nokuqaliswa kwesivumelwano sokunciphisa ukukhiqizwa kwe-OPEC+ nezinye izici ezinomthelela kwaba nzima, futhi ukungaqiniseki okuphelele kwakuqinile.Bekulindeleke ukuthi uwoyela ongahluziwe uzokhombisa inkambiso yokuqala ukuzithiba bese ukhuphuka, ugxile ekushintsheni kwezindleko kanye nomthelela ongokwengqondo.Ohlangothini lokuhlinzeka, ukwanda kusewumkhuba oyinhloko.Okokuqala, ukugcinwa nokugcinwa kwamanye amayunithi e-dehydrogenation e-Shandong kulindeleke, kodwa ukungaqiniseki kunamandla, ngakho-ke kunconywa ukuba uyinake kakhulu esikhathini esizayo;Okwesibili, ngokwethulwa kwe-Tianhong kanye nokuqalwa kabusha kwe-HSBC, amandla amasha okukhiqiza azokhululwa ngokuphawulekayo, futhi ezinye izindawo zokuhluza zendawo kulindeleke ukuba ziqale kabusha, futhi ukunikezwa kungase kubuyiselwe;Okwesithathu, izenzakalo zezempilo zomphakathi zenzeke kaningi ezindaweni eziyinhloko zokukhiqiza i-propylene, okube nomthelela othile emandleni okuthutha.Kunconywa ukuthi unake kakhulu izinguquko ze-inventory.Ngokombono wesidingo, ingene enkathini yokuxega kwesidingo sesizini, futhi isidingo esingezansi nesiphetho se-polypropylene sehlile, okukhawulele ngokusobala isidingo se-propylene;Ezansi nemboni yamakhemikhali, ezinye izitshalo ze-propylene oxide ne-acrylic acid kulindeleke ukuthi zifakwe ekukhiqizeni.Uma zifakwa ekukhiqizeni njengoba kuhleliwe, isidingo se-propylene sizokhula.U-Jinlianchuang ulindele ukuthi umdlalo wokuhlinzeka nokufunwa kwemakethe ye-propylene uzoqina ngoNovemba, futhi ukusebenza kuzobuswa ukushaqeka okubuthakathaka.
I-Phenol: Imakethe yasekhaya ye-phenol yaba buthakathaka ngezinga eliphezulu ngo-Okthoba, futhi ukushintshashintsha kwemakethe kwathinteka umkhathi wamandla, uhlangothi lwezindleko kanye nephethini yokuhlinzeka nesidingo.Phakathi namaholide, uwoyela ongahluziwe wamazwe ngamazwe kanye namandla kanye namakhemikhali ezimpahla ngokuvamile beziqinile, futhi isimo semakethe yamakhemikhali sasimuhle.Ngemuva kweholide, intengo esohlwini ye-Sinopec pure benzene yaphakanyiswa.Uma kubhekwa ukushoda okuqhubekayo kwezimpahla ezithengiswayo, abakhiqizi abakhulu be-phenol banikeze amanani aphezulu, futhi imakethe yakhuphuka ngokushesha ngesikhathi esifushane.Kodwa-ke, ngokushesha intengo kawoyela ongahluziwe yaqhubeka yehla, futhi umkhakha wemboni yamandla namakhemikhali wabhekana nezinkinga.Intengo yokufakwa kuhlu ye-Sinopec pure benzene yehle izikhathi ezimbalwa enyangeni, okuholele emakethe egxilile engalungile.Kwakunzima kubakhiqizi abazansi nomfula ukuthi bamunce ukwanda kwezinto zokusetshenziswa, futhi imali yemakethe yaba buthaka kakhulu.Ikakhulukazi, izinsuku ezimaphakathi nezakamuva eziyishumi zonyaka zingene enkathini yokunensa kwesizini, futhi ama-oda amasha etheminali abengemahle.Ukungalethwa kahle kwezitshalo ze-phenol ezansi nomfula kuholele ekwenyukeni kancane kwempahla yomkhiqizo kanye nokwehla okukhulu kwesidingo sezinto zokusetshenziswa.Uma kucatshangelwa ukuntuleka kokusekelwa kwezindleko, i-bisphenol A yemakethe ayiphezulu, imboni ayinathemba ngemakethe yesikhathi esizayo, futhi ukuhweba nokutshalwa kwezimali kuba buthaka futhi kuphelelwe yisikhathi.Kodwa-ke, i-inventory yechweba yahlala iphansi, ukugcwaliswa kabusha echwebeni kwakungaphansi kunokulindelekile, futhi izinga lokusebenza lilonke lamabhizinisi asekhaya e-phenol ketone lalingekho phezulu, futhi ukunikezwa kwendawo okuqinile kusekela intengo egciniwe.Kusukela ngomhla zingama-27 kuMfumfu, imakethe ye-phenol eMpumalanga China kwase kuxoxiswene ngayo cishe ngo-10,300 yuan/ton, yehle ngo-550-600 yuan/ton ngenyanga kusukela zingama-26 kuSepthemba.
Imakethe yasekhaya ye-phenol kulindeleke ukuthi ibe buthakathaka futhi iguquguquke ngoNovemba.Uma kucatshangelwa ukuba buthaka kohlangothi lwezindleko kanye nobunzima bokuthuthukisa isidingo setheminali esikhathini esifushane, ukubuya kwemakethe kuntula umfutho, futhi iphethini yokunikezwa okubuthakathaka nesidingo ingase iqhubeke.Umthamo omusha wokukhiqiza i-phenol we-Wanhua e-China kulindeleke ukuthi usetshenziswe ngoNovemba kulo nyaka, okwandisa isimo sengqondo sokulinda nokubona embonini.Kodwa-ke, amabhizinisi akhiqiza i-phenol anokuzimisela okulinganiselwe ukwehlisa amanani, futhi i-inventory ye-port ephansi nayo inokwesekwa okuthile.Ngaphandle kokwenza kube nzima nakakhulu ukungqubuzana phakathi kokunikezwa nokufunwa, kunendawo elinganiselwe yokwehla kwentengo okuqhubekayo.Umthamo wokukhiqiza we-bisphenol A ongezansi uyaqhubeka nokukhula, futhi izingqinamba ezivela ohlangothini lwesidingo zingase zidambe.Kulindeleke ukuthi intengo ye-phenol iguquguquke kancane ngoNovemba, ngakho-ke kuyadingeka ukunaka ukulandelwa kwezindaba ezinkulu, uhlangothi lwezindleko, imakethe yokuphela kanye namabhizinisi angezansi.
I-acetone: Ngo-Okthoba, imakethe ye-acetone yavuka kuqala yabe isiwa, ibonisa inkambiso ye-V ehlanekezelwe.Ekupheleni kwale nyanga, intengo yemakethe eMpumalanga China yase ikhuphuke ngo-100 yuan/ton yaya ku-5650 yuan/ton uma kuqhathaniswa nokuphela kwenyanga edlule.Ngenxa yokuqina kawoyela ongahluziwe wamazwe ngamazwe phakathi neholide Losuku Lwesizwe, i-benzene emsulwa yenyuka kakhulu, futhi imakethe ye-acetone yavuleka phezulu ngemva kweholide.Ikakhulukazi, ukunikezwa kwendawo kwaqhubeka kuqinile.Abanikazi bempahla ngokuvamile bebemanqikanqika ukudayisa ngamanani aphansi, futhi babonakala besabonakala emoyeni.Imakethe yakhuphuka ngokushesha yafinyelela ku-6200 yuan/ton.Kodwa-ke, ngemuva kwentengo ephezulu, ukulandelwa komfula kwaba buthaka.Abanye abathengisi bakhetha ukuthatha inzuzo, futhi izinhloso zabo zokuthutha zanda.Imakethe yehle kancane, kodwa njengoba i-inventory yechweba iqhubeka nokwehla, Maphakathi nonyaka, isimo semakethe saqhubeka sithuthuka, amanani entengo amabhizinisi akhuphuka ngokulandelana, futhi imakethe ye-acetone yabonisa ukusebenza okuqinile.Kusukela ekupheleni kosuku, isimo semakethe saba buthakathaka.Izimakethe ezingezansi ze-bisphenol A kanye nezimakethe ze-isopropanol zaqhubeka nokubuyela emuva, futhi ukuzethemba kwamanye amabhizinisi kuye kwaxega.Ngaphezu kwalokho, imikhumbi eyayifika ethekwini yehliswa ngokulandelana.Isimo esishubile sokuhlinzekwa kwamabala sancishiswa, isidingo esingezansi sehla, futhi imakethe yehla kancane.
Kulindeleke ukuthi imakethe ye-acetone ibe buthakathaka ngoNovemba.Nakuba i-650000 t/a phenol nesitshalo se-ketone sase-Ningbo Taihua isiqalile ukulungiswa, isitshalo se-300000 t/a phenol kanye ne-ketone e-Changshu Changchun kuhlelwe ukuthi siqale kabusha maphakathi no-November, futhi isitshalo se-phenol ne-ketone sinenzuzo enhle.Isekhona indawo yokuthuthukiswa kokuhlinzekwa kwezidingo zasekhaya.Imikhiqizo eminingi engezansi isebuthaka.Izinhloso zokuthenga eziya phansi ziyacophelela.Ngokuvamile, kulindeleke ukuthi imakethe ye-acetone izokwehla ngokunengqondo ngoNovemba.
I-Bisphenol A: Ngo-Okthoba, imakethe yasekhaya ye-bisphenol A yawa kuqala yase yavuka.Ekuqaleni kwenyanga, ngenxa yokwanda kwempahla yefekthri ngesikhathi samaholide, imakethe yayizinzile futhi ibuthakathaka.Isimo sokulinda bese sibona sinzima.Maphakathi nale nyanga, i-Zhejiang Petrochemical yabamba indali ye-post festival, futhi intengo yaqhubeka nokwehla, okube nomthelela omubi emakethe ye-bisphenol A.Ngemuva komkhosi, umthwalo weyunithi ye-Sinopec Mitsui ukhuphuke ngemuva kokuqala kabusha, futhi umthwalo weyunithi ye-Pingmei Shenma wanda.Ngemuva komkhosi, izinga lokusebenza kwemboni ye-bisphenol A likhuphuke, futhi ukunikezwa kulindeleke ukuthi kukhuphuke.Ngaphezu kwalokho, ngemva komkhosi, intengo ye-phenol ikhuphuke kancane, ibonisa ukwehla.I-Downstream PC kanye ne-epoxy resin kwaqhubeka nokuncipha, okwaba nomthelela othile ku-bisphenol A, ikakhulukazi ewela phakathi nenyanga.Ekupheleni kwenyanga, ngemva kokuphothulwa kokugcwaliswa kabusha komfula, umdlandla wokuthenga wehla, futhi umjikelezo wenkontileka entsha waqala ekupheleni kwenyanga.I-downstream idla kakhulu izinkontileka.Ukushintshwa kwama-oda amasha kwakunganele, futhi umfutho we-BPA wokushesha wawunganele, futhi intengo yaqala ukwehla.Ngesikhathi somnqamulajuqu, ukuxoxisana kwereferensi yemakethe ye-bisphenol A yase-East China kwase kucishe kube ngu-16300-16500 yuan/ton, futhi inani elimaphakathi langesonto likhuphuke ngo-12.94% ngenyanga.
Kulindeleke ukuthi imakethe yasekhaya ye-bisphenol A iqhubeke nokwehla ngoNovemba.Ukusekelwa kwezinto ezingavuthiwe ze-phenol ketone ye-bisphenol A kubuthakathaka.Ethintwe ukwehla okukhulu kwemakethe ngo-Okthoba, izimo zemakethe ye-bearish yezinto zokusetshenziswa zilandisa iningi, futhi azikho izindaba ezinhle zokusekela imakethe.Imakethe ibuthakathaka, futhi amathuba okulungiswa makhulu.Naka kakhulu izinguquko ekuhlinzekeni nasekufuneni.

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