Muva nje, imikhiqizo eminingi yamakhemikhali e-China ibe nezinga elithile lokukhula, kanti eminye imikhiqizo ithole ukwanda okungaphezu kuka-10%.Lokhu ukulungisa okuziphindiselelayo ngemva kokwehla okuqongelelekayo okucishe kube unyaka esigabeni sokuqala, futhi akuzange kulungise inkambiso iyonke yokwehla kwezimakethe.Ngokuzayo, imakethe yomkhiqizo wamakhemikhali waseShayina izohlala ibuthakathaka isikhathi eside.
I-Octanol isebenzisa i-acrylic acid ne-synthesis gas njengezinto zokusetshenziswa, i-vanadium njengesisusa sokukhiqiza i-butyraldehyde exubile, lapho i-n-butyraldehyde ne-Isobutyraldehyde icwengwa ukuze kutholwe i-n-butyraldehyde ne-isobutyraldehyde, bese umkhiqizo we-octanol utholwa ngokuncipha kwe-hydrogenation, i-dictstitication nezinye izinqubo.Umfula ongezansi usetshenziswa kakhulu emkhakheni wezinto zepulasitiki, ezifana ne-dioctyl terephthalate, i-dioctyl Phthalic acid, i-isooctyl acrylate, njll. I-TOM/DOA nezinye izinkambu.
Imakethe yaseShayina inezinga eliphezulu lokunaka i-octanol.Ngakolunye uhlangothi, ukukhiqizwa kwe-octanol kuhambisana nokukhiqizwa kwemikhiqizo efana ne-butanol, eyingxenye yochungechunge lwemikhiqizo futhi enomthelela omkhulu emakethe;Ngakolunye uhlangothi, njengomkhiqizo obalulekile we-plasticizers, unomthelela oqondile emakethe yabathengi bepulasitiki ephansi.
Ngonyaka odlule, imakethe ye-octanol yaseShayina ibe nokuguquguquka okukhulu kwentengo, kusukela ku-8650 yuan/ton kuya ku-10750 yuan/ton, ngebanga elingu-24.3%.Ngomhla ziyisi-9 kuJuni 2023, intengo ephansi kakhulu yayingu-8650 yuan/ton, futhi intengo ephakeme kakhulu yayingu-10750 yuan/ton ngo-February 3, 2023.
Onyakeni odlule, intengo yemakethe ye-octanol iye yaguquguquka kakhulu, kodwa i-amplitude ephezulu ingama-24% kuphela, ephansi kakhulu kunokwehla kwemakethe evamile.Ukwengeza, intengo emaphakathi onyakeni odlule ibingu-9500 yuan/ton, futhi okwamanje imakethe yeqe inani elimaphakathi, okubonisa ukuthi ukusebenza kukonke kwemakethe kunamandla kunezinga elimaphakathi onyakeni odlule.
Umfanekiso 1: Ithrendi Yamanani Yemakethe Ye-Octanol E-China Onyakeni Ophelile (Iyunithi: RMB/ton)

Ngaleso sikhathi, ngenxa yenani lemakethe eliqinile le-octanol, inzuzo yokukhiqiza iyonke ye-octanol iqinisekiswa ukuthi isezingeni eliphezulu.Ngokwefomula yezindleko ze-propylene, imakethe ye-octanol yaseShayina igcine umkhawulo wenzuzo ephezulu onyakeni odlule.Isilinganiso senzuzo yesilinganiso semboni yemakethe ye-octanol yaseShayina singama-29%, nesilinganiso senzuzo esiphezulu esingaba ngu-40% kanye nesilinganiso senzuzo esincane esingu-17%, kusukela ngoMashi 2022 kuya kuJuni 2023.
Kungabonakala ukuthi nakuba amanani emakethe ehlile, ukukhiqizwa kwe-octanol kusesezingeni eliphezulu uma kuqhathaniswa.Uma kuqhathaniswa neminye imikhiqizo, izinga lenzuzo lokukhiqizwa kwe-octanol e-China liphezulu kunezinga eliphakathi lemikhiqizo yamakhemikhali eyinqwaba.
Umfanekiso 2: Izinguquko Zenzuzo Ye-Octanol E-China Onyakeni Odlule (Iyunithi: RMB/ton)

Izizathu zezinga eliphezulu lenzuzo yokukhiqiza i-octanol ngokuqhubekayo zimi kanje:
Okokuqala, ukwehla kwezindleko zempahla eluhlaza kukhulu kakhulu kunaleyo ye-octanol.Ngokwezibalo, i-propylene e-China yehle ngo-14.9% kusukela ngo-Okthoba 2022 kuya kuJuni 2023, kuyilapho amanani e-octanol enyuke ngo-0.08%.Ngakho-ke, ukwehla kwezindleko zempahla eluhlaza kuholele enzuzweni eyengeziwe yokukhiqiza ye-octanol, okuphinde kube isizathu esibalulekile sokuqinisekisa ukuthi inzuzo ye-octanol ihlala iphezulu.
Kusukela ngo-2009 kuya ku-2023, ukuguquguquka kwentengo ye-propylene ne-octanol e-China kubonise ukuthambekela okungaguquki, kodwa imakethe ye-octanol yayine-amplitude enkulu kanye nokuntengantenga kwemakethe ye-propylene kwakungashintshile.Ngokusho kokuhlolwa kokufaneleka kwedatha, izinga elifanelekile lokuguquguquka kwentengo ezimakethe ze-propylene ne-octanol ngu-68.8%, futhi kukhona ukuhlobana okuthile phakathi kwakho kokubili, kodwa ukuhlobana kubuthakathaka.
Kusukela kulesi sibalo esingezansi, kungabonakala ukuthi kusukela ngoJanuwari 2009 kuya kuDisemba 2019, ukuguquguquka nokukhula kwe-propylene ne-octanol kwakuhambisana ngokuyisisekelo.Kusukela ekulinganeni kwedatha phakathi nalesi sikhathi, ukulingana phakathi kwakho kokubili kucishe kube ngu-86%, okubonisa ukuhlobana okuqinile.Kodwa kusukela ngo-2020, i-octanol iye yanda kakhulu, ehluke kakhulu kumkhuba wokuguquguquka kwe-propylene, okuyisizathu esiyinhloko sokuncipha kokulingana phakathi kokubili.
Kusukela ngo-2009 kuya kuJuni 2023, intengo ye-octanol ne-propylene e-China iye yaguquguquka (iyunithi: RMB/ton)

Okwesibili, eminyakeni yamuva nje, amandla amasha okukhiqiza emakethe ye-octanol e-China anqunyelwe.Ngokusho kwedatha efanelekile, kusukela ngo-2017, akuzange kube khona imishini emisha ye-octanol e-China, futhi umthamo wokukhiqiza usuwonke uhlezi uzinzile.Ngakolunye uhlangothi, ukunwetshwa kwesikali se-octanol kudinga ukubamba iqhaza ku-Forming gas, okukhawulela amabhizinisi amaningi amasha.Ngakolunye uhlangothi, ukukhula kancane kwezimakethe zabathengi ezingezansi kubangele ukuthi uhlangothi lokuhlinzekwa kwemakethe ye-octanol lungaqhutshwa isidingo.
Ngokwesisekelo sokuthi umthamo wokukhiqiza we-octanol waseShayina awukhuli, isimo sokuhlinzeka nesidingo emakethe ye-octanol sehlile, futhi izingxabano zemakethe azigqamile, okuphinde kusekele inzuzo yokukhiqiza yemakethe ye-octanol.
Intengo yemakethe ye-octanol kusukela ngo-2009 kuze kube manje ishintshile ukusuka ku-4956 yuan/ton ukuya ku-17855 yuan/ton, ngebanga elikhulu lokuguquguquka, eliphinde libonise ukungaqiniseki okukhulu kwamanani emakethe ye-octanol.Kusukela ngo-2009 kuya kuJuni 2023, inani elimaphakathi le-octanol emakethe yaseShayina lalisuka ku-9300 yuan/ton ukuya ku-9800 yuan/ton.Ukuvela kwamaphoyinti okuguquguquka amaningana esikhathini esidlule kuphinda kubonise ukwesekwa noma ukumelana kwezintengo ezimaphakathi ze-octanol ekuguquguqukeni kwezimakethe.
NgoJuni 2023, isilinganiso sentengo yemakethe ye-octanol e-China sasingu-9300 yuan ngethani, okuyisisekelo esingaphakathi kwebanga lentengo yemakethe yeminyaka eyi-13 edlule.Iphuzu eliphansi lomlando lentengo ngu-5534 yuan/ton, futhi iphuzu lokushintshana ngu-9262 yuan/ton.Okusho ukuthi, uma intengo yemakethe ye-octanol iqhubeka nokwehla, iphuzu eliphansi lingase libe izinga losekelo lwalo mkhuba ophansi.Ngokubuya nokukhuphuka kwamanani entengo, intengo yayo emaphakathi yomlando engu-9800 yuan/ton ingase ibe izinga lokumelana nokwenyuka kwentengo.
Kusukela ngo-2009 kuya ku-2023, intengo ye-octanol e-China iye yaguquguquka (iyunithi: RMB/ton)


Ngo-2023, i-China izokwengeza isethi entsha yemishini ye-octanol, ezophula irekhodi lokungabi bikho kwamadivayisi amasha e-octanol eminyakeni embalwa edlule futhi kulindeleke ukuthi ikhulise umoya omubi we-hype emakethe ye-octanol.Ngaphezu kwalokho, ekulindelweni kobuthakathaka besikhathi eside emakethe yamakhemikhali, kulindeleke ukuthi amanani entengo ye-octanol e-China azohlala ebuthakathaka isikhathi eside, okungase kubeke ingcindezi ethile enzuzweni ezingeni eliphakeme.