Engxenyeni yokuqala yalo nyaka, imakethe ye-polyether yegwebu elithambile ibonise inkambiso yokukhuphuka kuqala bese yehla, lapho isikhungo samanani sisonke sicwila.Kodwa-ke, ngenxa yokutholakala okuqinile kwezinto ezingavuthiwe ze-EPDM ngo-March kanye nokukhuphuka okuqinile kwamanani, imakethe ye-foam ethambile yaqhubeka nokukhuphuka, amanani afinyelela ku-11300 yuan/ton engxenyeni yokuqala yonyaka, edlula okulindelekile.Kusukela ngoJanuwari kuya kuJuni 2026, isilinganiso senani lentengo ye-polyether yegwebu elithambile emakethe yase-East China yayingu-9898.79 yuan/ton, ukwehla ngo-15.08% uma kuqhathaniswa nesikhathi esifanayo ngonyaka odlule.Engxenyeni yokuqala yonyaka, intengo yemakethe ephansi ekuqaleni kukaJanuwari yayingamayuan angu-8900, futhi umehluko wentengo phakathi kwesiphetho esiphezulu nesiphansi wawungu-2600 yuan/ton, kancane kancane wehlisa ukuntengantenga kwemakethe.

Ukwehla kwesikhungo samanani emakethe kudalwe kakhulu ukudonsa kwentengo yempahla eluhlaza, kanye nomphumela womdlalo phakathi kokutholakala kwemakethe okuchichimayo kanye “nokulindelwe okuqinile kanye nesidingo esiqinile”.Engxenyeni yokuqala ka-2023, imakethe yamabhamuza athambile ingahlukaniswa cishe ibe yisiteji somthelela ophansi kanye nesiteji esingemuva sokushaqeka.
Kusukela ngoJanuwari kuya ekuqaleni kukaMashi, ukuguquguquka kwentengo kukhuphuke
1. I-EPDM yezinto ezingavuthiwe iyaqhubeka nokukhuphuka.NgoMkhosi Wasentwasahlobo, ukulethwa kwezinto ezingavuthiwe zokuvikela imvelo kwakushelela, futhi amanani ayeshintshashintsha futhi enyuka.Ekuqaleni kuka-March, ngenxa yokugcinwa kwezinto zokusetshenziswa njengesigaba sokuqala se-Huanbing Zhenhai ne-Binhua, ukunikezwa kwakuqinile, futhi amanani enyuka kakhulu, okwenza imakethe yegwebu elithambile iqhubeke nokukhuphuka.Engxenyeni yokuqala yonyaka, amanani enyuka.
2. Umthelela wezici zenhlalo uya ngokuya uba buthaka, futhi imakethe inokulindela okuhle ekubuyiselweni kohlangothi lwesidingo.Abathengisi bazimisele ukusekela amanani, kodwa imakethe i-bearish nxazonke ze-Spring Festival, futhi kunzima ukuthola ukunikezwa kwentengo ephansi emakethe ngemva kweholide.Kulesi sigaba, isidingo esingaphansi komfula siphansi, okugcina isidingo esiqinile sokuthengwa kwempahla, ikakhulukazi ukubuyiselwa emakethe ngesikhathi soMkhosi Wasentwasahlobo, kwehlisela phansi isimo semakethe.
Kusukela maphakathi noMashi kuya kuJuni, ukuguquguquka kwentengo kwehla futhi ukuguquguquka kwezimakethe kwancipha kancane kancane
1. Amandla amasha wokukhiqiza we-EPDM yezinto ezingavuthiwe afakwe ngokuqhubekayo emakethe, futhi ingqondo yemboni iphansi.Ngekota yesibili, kuthinte kancane kancane ukuhlinzekwa kwe-EPDM emakethe, okwenza intengo ye-EPDM yehle futhi iqhubekisele intengo yemakethe ye-polyether ye-foam ethambile yehla;
2. Isidingo se-downstream siphinde saba ngaphansi kunalokho obekulindelwe ngo-March, futhi ukukhula kwe-oda elingezansi komfula kulinganiselwe ngo-April.Kusukela ngoMeyi, isingene kancane kancane enkathini engekho, idonsela phansi umcabango wokuthenga.Imakethe ye-polyether incipha kakhulu ekuhlinzekweni, futhi ukuhlinzekwa kwemakethe kanye nesidingo siyaqhubeka nokuncintisana, okuholela ekwehleni okuqhubekayo kwamanani.Iningi lezindawo zokugcina impahla ezansi nomfula zigcwaliswa njengoba kudingeka.Uma intengo iphindela emuva isuka endaweni ephansi, izoholela ekuthengeni okuphakathi nendawo esidingweni esezansi nomfula, kodwa izohlala isigamu sosuku kuya osukwini.Ekuqaleni kukaMeyi kulesi sigaba, ngenxa yokushoda kwezinto ezingavuthiwe zokuhlinzekwa kwe-EPDM kanye nokwenyuka kwentengo, imakethe ye-polyether ethambile yegwebu inyuke cishe ngama-yuan angama-600/ton, kuyilapho imakethe ye-polyether yayikhombisa kakhulu ukuguquguquka kwentengo, amanani entengo elandela kancane lo mkhuba. .
Njengamanje, ama-polyether polyols asesesikhathini sokunwetshwa kwamandla.Kusukela engxenyeni yokuqala yonyaka, umthamo wonyaka wokukhiqiza wama-polyether polyols e-China ukhule waba amathani ayizigidi ezingu-7.53.Imboni igcina ukukhiqizwa okusekelwe kumasu okuthengisa, amafekthri amakhulu ngokuvamile asebenza kahle, kuyilapho amafekthri amancane naphakathi nendawo engafaneleki.Izinga lokusebenza kwemboni lingaphezulu kancane kuka-50%.Uma kuqhathaniswa nesidingo, ukunikezwa kwemakethe ye-foam polyether ethambile bekulokhu kuningi.Ngokombono wesidingo esingezansi, njengoba ithonya lezici zenhlalo lincipha kancane kancane, abangaphakathi embonini banethemba ngesidingo ngo-2023, kodwa ukubuyiswa kwesidingo somkhiqizo wezimboni engxenyeni yokuqala yonyaka akulindelekile.Engxenyeni yokuqala yonyaka, imboni enkulu yezipontshi ezansi nomfula yayinempahla ephansi ngaphambi koMkhosi Wasentwasahlobo, futhi umthamo wokuthengwa kwempahla ngemva koMkhosi Wasentwasahlobo wawungaphansi kunokulindelekile.Lapho kudingeka khona i-inventory kusuka ngoMashi kuya ku-April, kanye nenkathi engekho yendabuko kusukela ngoMeyi kuya kuJuni.Ukubuyiselwa kwemboni yezipontshi engxenyeni yokuqala yonyaka bekuphansi kakhulu kunalokho obekulindelwe, kudonsela phansi umqondo wokuthenga.Njengamanje, ngokukhula nokuwa kwemakethe yamabhamuza athambile, ukuthengwa okuningi komfula sekushintshele ekuthengeni okuqinile, ngomjikelezo wokuthenga weviki elilodwa kuya kwamabili kanye nesikhathi sokuthenga esiwuhhafu wosuku kuya osukwini olulodwa.Izinguquko emijikelezweni yokuthengwa kwempahla eyehla nomfula ziye ngokwezinga elithile zibe nomthelela ekushintshashintsheni kwamanje kwamanani entengo ye-polyether.

Engxenyeni yesibili yonyaka, imakethe ye-polyether ethambile yegwebu ingase yehle kancane futhi izintengo zingabuya.
Kwikota yesine, isikhungo semakethe sokudonsela phansi singaphinda sibe nobuthakathaka obuncane, njengoba imakethe ishintshashintsha kugeyimu yesidingo sokuhlinzeka ngomthelela wemvelo wezinto ezingavuthiwe.
1. Ekupheleni kwendandatho C eluhlaza, amandla amasha okukhiqiza endandatho C afakwe kancane kancane emakethe.Asekhona amandla amasha okukhiqiza azokhishwa engxenyeni yesithathu.Kulindeleke ukuthi ukunikezwa kwe-EPDM yezinto ezingavuthiwe kuzoqhubeka nokubonisa ukuthambekela okukhuphukayo kwikota yesithathu, futhi iphethini yokuncintisana izoba namandla kakhulu.Kungase kube khona ukuthambekela kokwehla kancane emakethe, futhi i-polyether ye-foam ethambile ingase ishaye phansi encane endleleni;Ngesikhathi esifanayo, ukwanda kokuhlinzekwa kwe-EPDM yezinto ezingavuthiwe kungase kuthinte ububanzi bokuguquguquka kwentengo.Kulindeleke ukuthi ukukhuphuka nokuwa kwemakethe yamabhamuza athambile kuzohlala phakathi kuka-200-1000 yuan/ton;
2. Ukunikezwa kwemakethe kwe-polyether yegwebu elithambile kusengagcina isimo sokudingeka esanele.Engxenyeni yesibili yonyaka, amafektri amakhulu eShandong naseningizimu yeChina anezinhlelo zokunakekela noma izinkathi zendawo zokuhlinzekwa okuqinile emakethe ye-polyether, enganikeza ukusekelwa okuhle kwengqondo yabaqhubi noma ukushayela ukwanda kancane emakethe.Ukusatshalaliswa kwezimpahla phakathi kwezifunda kungase kulindeleke ukuthi kuqinise;
3. Mayelana nesidingo, kusukela kukota yesithathu, izimakethe ezingezansi ziphuma kancane kancane esikhathini esijwayelekile esingekho, futhi ama-oda amasha kulindeleke ukuthi anyuke kancane kancane.Umsebenzi wokuhweba kanye nokusimama kwemakethe ye-polyether kulindeleke ukuthi kuthuthuke kancane kancane.Ngokuvumelana ne-industrial inertia, izinkampani eziningi ezansi nomfula zithenga izinto zokusetshenziswa kusenesikhathi phakathi nenkathi ephezulu lapho amanani afaneleka engxenyeni yesithathu.Ukuthengiselana kwemakethe engxenyeni yesithathu kulindeleke ukuthi kuthuthuke uma kuqhathaniswa nekota yesibili;
4. Kusukela ekuhlaziyweni kwesizini kwe-polyether ye-foam ethambile, kule minyaka eyishumi edlule, imakethe ye-foam ethambile ithole ukwanda okuphawulekayo kusukela ngoJulayi kuya ku-Okthoba, ikakhulukazi ngo-September.Njengoba imakethe ingena kancane kancane enkathini evamile yokufuna kwesidingo “golden nine silver ten”, kulindeleke ukuthi ukuthengiselana kwemakethe kuqhubeke nokuba ngcono.Kwikota yesine, izimboni zezimoto nezipontshi kulindeleke ukuthi zibone ukukhula kokuhleleka, zenze ukusekelwa ohlangothini lwesidingo.Ngokukhula okuqhubekayo kwendawo eqediwe yezindlu ezithengiswayo kanye nokukhiqizwa kwemboni yezimoto, kungase ngokwezinga elithile kuqhubekisele phambili isidingo semakethe se-polyether yegwebu elithambile.

Ngokusekelwe ekuhlaziyweni okungenhla, kulindeleke ukuthi imakethe ye-polyether ye-foam ethambile izophinde ibuyele kancane kancane ngemva kokufinyelela phansi engxenyeni yesibili yonyaka, kodwa ngenxa yezici zonyaka, kuzoba nomkhuba wokulungisa ekupheleni konyaka.Ukwengeza, umkhawulo ongaphezulu wokubuya kwemakethe wangaphambi kwesikhathi ngeke ube phezulu kakhulu, futhi ububanzi bentengo evamile bungase bube phakathi kuka-9400-10500 yuan/ton.Ngokusho kwamaphethini wonyaka, iphuzu eliphakeme engxenyeni yesibili yonyaka kungenzeka livele ngoSepthemba no-Okthoba, kanti iphuzu eliphansi lingase livele ngoJulayi noDisemba.