Engxenyeni yokuqala ka-2022, amanani emakethe ye-propylene yasekhaya akhuphuka kancane unyaka nonyaka, nezindleko eziphezulu ziyisici esinomthelela omkhulu osekela amanani e-propylene.Kodwa-ke, ukuqhubeka kokukhishwa kwamandla amasha okukhiqiza kuholele ekwenyukeni kwengcindezi ekuhlinzekweni kwemakethe, kodwa futhi nasekukhuphukeni kwentengo ye-propylene, ingxenye yokuqala yenzuzo iyonke yochungechunge lwemboni ye-propylene yehlile.Engxenyeni yesibili yonyaka, ukucindezela ohlangothini lwezindleko kungase kudambe kancane, kuyilapho uhlangothi lokuhlinzeka nokufunwa kulindeleke ukuthi luthuthukise umthelela wamanani e-propylene engxenyeni yesibili yonyaka kulindeleke ukuthi ikhuphuke bese yehla, isilinganiso. Izinga lentengo lingase lingabi phezulu njengasengxenyeni yokuqala.

Izici ezibalulekile ezithinta imakethe ye-propylene yasekhaya engxenyeni yokuqala ka-2022 zimi kanje.

1. Izindleko eziphawulekayo zonyaka nonyaka zikhuphuka, okwakha ukusekelwa okuhle kwamanani e-propylene.

2. ukukhuphuka kwethrendi yokuhlinzeka, okuwukudonsa kwentengo ye-propylene.

3. Ukunyuka kwesidingo kodwa inzuzo enciphayo ezansi nomfula, ukukhuphuka okulinganiselwe kumanani e-propylene.

Izinto zokusetshenziswa ze-propylene zikhuphuka ngaphezu kwemikhiqizo engaphansi komfula, inzuzo ye-industrial chain iyancipha

Engxenyeni yokuqala ka-2022, intengo yomkhiqizo wemboni ye-propylene ikhuphuka isuka ezintweni ezingavuthiwe iye emikhiqizweni engezansi ngohlelo olunciphayo.Njengoba kungabonakala etafuleni elingezansi, intengo kawoyela ongahluziwe kanye ne-propane njengezinto zokusetshenziswa eziyinhloko ze-propylene zenyuka kakhulu engxenyeni yokuqala yonyaka, ikakhulukazi amanani kawoyela akhuphuka ngo-60.88% unyaka nonyaka, okuholela ekubonakaleni okukhulu. ukwanda kwezindleko zokukhiqiza i-propylene.Uma kuqhathaniswa nezinto zokusetshenziswa, izintengo zepropylene zasekhaya zenyuka ngaphansi kuka-4% unyaka nonyaka, futhi imboni ye-propylene yawela ekulahlekelweni okukhulu.Izintengo zokuphuma kwe-propylene ezansi nomfula zehla unyaka nonyaka, ikakhulukazi i-propylene oxide, i-butyl alcohol, i-acrylonitrile, amanani e-acetone ehle kakhulu.Inzuzo yezinto eziphuma ku-propylene ezansi nomfula ngokuvamile yehla engxenyeni yokuqala yonyaka ngenxa yenhlanganisela yokukhuphuka kwamanani ezinto zokusetshenziswa kanye nokwehla kwamanani emikhiqizo ngokwayo.

Izindleko ze-propylene zikhuphuke kakhulu unyaka nonyaka, zisekela amanani e-propylene kahle

Izindleko zenyuka kakhulu, izinqubo eziningi ziwela ekulahlekelweni.Inzuzo yemboni ye-propylene ka-2022 yayingeyinhle engxenyeni yokuqala yonyaka, ngezindleko zezinqubo ezihlukene zepropylene ezikhuphuka ngamanani ahlukene unyaka nonyaka, ngo-15% -45%, okubonisa ukwenyuka okuphawulekayo kwamanani ezinto ezibonakalayo.Nakuba isikhungo samandla adonsela phansi amanani e-propylene nawo akhuphuka, kodwa izinga lokukhuphuka lalingaphansi kuka-4%.Ngenxa yalokho, inzuzo yezinqubo ezahlukene ze-propylene yehle kakhulu unyaka nonyaka, ngo-60% -262%.Ngaphandle kwe-propylene esekelwe ngamalahle, eyayinenzuzo kancane, ezinye izinqubo ze-propylene zazilahlekelwe kakhulu.
Isamba sokuhlinzekwa kwe-propylene siyenyuka, sidonsa amanani e-propylene phezulu

Amandla amasha ayaqhubeka nokukhishwa, ngokukhula kanyekanye ekukhiqizeni amandla.I-2021 H1 ihlanganisa isigaba sesibili se-Zhenhai Refinery, Lihua Yi, Qi Xiang, Xinyue, Xinjiang Hengyou, Srbang, Anqing Tai Hengfa, Xintai, Tianjin Bohua, njll. Inani lezitshalo ze-propylene seliqalile ukusebenza.Umthamo omusha usatshalaliswa ikakhulukazi eShandong naseMpumalanga China, ngenani elincane lokusabalalisa eNyakatho-ntshonalanga, eNyakatho naseCentral China.Inqubo yokukhiqiza umthamo omusha ngokuyinhloko i-PDH, ukuqhekeka komuntu ngamunye, ukuqhekeka kwe-catalytic, izinqubo zokukhiqiza ze-MTO ne-MTP nazo zikhona.Amathani ayizigidi ezi-3.58 omthamo omusha we-propylene wasekhaya wengezwe engxenyeni yokuqala ka-2022, futhi umthamo wasekhaya wepropylene usuwonke ukhule waba amathani ayizigidi ezingama-53.58.Ukukhululwa komthamo omusha we-propylene kuholele ekwenyukeni kokukhiqizwa, ngokukhiqizwa kwepropylene yasekhaya okuphelele kwamathani ayizigidi ezingama-22.4 ku-H1 2022, okuwukukhuphuka ngo-5.81% uma kuqhathaniswa nesikhathi esifanayo ngo-2021.

Isilinganiso senani lentengo yokuthenga kwamanye amazwe yenyuka unyaka nonyaka, futhi umthamo wezinto ezithengwayo wehla kakhulu.2022 H1 isilinganiso senani lokungenisa liyenyuka unyaka nonyaka, futhi amathuba e-arbitrage ezimpahla ezingenisiwe abenomkhawulo.Ikakhulukazi, ngo-April 2022, ukungenisa kwe-propylene yasekhaya kwakungamathani angama-54,600 kuphela, irekhodi eliphansi eminyakeni eyi-14 edlule.isamba se-propylene engenisiwe engxenyeni yokuqala ka-2022 kulindeleke ukuthi ibe amathani ayi-965,500, yehle ngo-22.46% kusukela esikhathini esifanayo ngo-2021. Njengoba ukunikezwa kwepropylene yasekhaya kuqhubeka nokwanda, isabelo semakethe yokungenisa kwamanye amazwe siyacindezelwa, ngokuhambisana nokulindelwe yimakethe.
Isidingo se-propylene siyakhuphuka kodwa inzuzo ephansi yomfula iyancipha, ukukhuphuka okulinganiselwe kumanani e-propylene

Ukusetshenziswa kwe-propylene kwakhula unyaka nonyaka ngokukhululwa komthamo omusha owela phansi.I-2022 H1 ihlanganise ukukhishwa kwenani lamayunithi angaphansi komfula okuhlanganisa i-Lianhong New Materials, isitshalo se-Weifang Shu Skin Kang polypropylene, i-Lijin Refinery, isitshalo se-Tianchen Qixiang acrylonitrile, i-Zhenhai II, isitshalo se-Tianjin Bohua i-propylene oxide kanye nokukhula kwesitshalo se-acetone se-ZPCC, ukushayela isitshalo se-acetone.Umthamo omusha ongaphansi komfula ugxile eShandong naseMpumalanga China, ngenani elincane lokusabalalisa eNyakatho neChina.Amathani ayizigidi ezingama-23.74 okusetshenziswa kwe-propylene ezansi komfula engxenyeni yokuqala ka-2022, okuwukukhuphuka ngo-7.03% uma kuqhathaniswa nesikhathi esifanayo ngo-2021.

Amabhizinisi asekhaya athumela kwamanye amazwe ngenkuthalo, futhi umthamo wokuthekelisa wepropylene ukhuphuka unyaka nonyaka.Ngokukhula okusheshayo kwamandla okukhiqiza i-propylene yasekhaya kanye nokwanda okukhulu kwengcindezi yezimakethe ezincintisanayo, ezinye izitshalo ezijwayelekile zifuna ngenkuthalo amathuba okuthekelisa, okuhambisana nokuvela kwesigaba sesikhala se-arbitrage, umthamo wokuthunyelwa kwepropylene ukhule kakhulu unyaka nonyaka.
Inzuzo yemikhiqizo ephansi iyancipha, ikhono lokwamukela izintengo zempahla yehla.ingxenye yokuqala yango-2022 amanani entengo yezinto ezibonakalayo akhuphuka, kuyilapho izintengo ze-propylene ezansi nomfula zehla kakhulu, inzuzo yemikhiqizo ye-propylene ephansi ngokuvamile yehla.Phakathi kwazo, inzuzo ye-butanol ne-acrylic acid izinzile, futhi inzuzo ye-propylene indlela ye-ECH iyathuthukiswa.Kodwa-ke, inzuzo ye-polypropylene powder, i-acrylonitrile, i-phenol ketone kanye ne-propylene oxide inzuzo yonke iyancipha kakhulu, futhi i-polypropylene eyinhloko ephansi yawela ekulahlekelweni kwesikhathi eside.Ukwamukeleka kwezitshalo ze-propylene ezansi nomfula amanani entengo yempahla yehla futhi umdlandla wazo wokuthenga wawungemuhle, okwathinta isidingo se-propylene ngezinga elithile.

Izintengo ze-propylene engxenyeni yesibili yonyaka kulindeleke ukuthi zikhuphuke bese zehla, namazinga entengo ayisilinganiso angabi phezulu njengasengxenyeni yokuqala yonyaka.

Ohlangothini lwezindleko, amanani entengo yezinto ezingavuthiwe kungenzeka ehle engxenyeni yesibili yonyaka, futhi ukwesekwa kwezindleko ze-propylene kungase kube buthakathaka kancane.

Ngasohlangothini lokuhlinzekwa kwempahla, ukuthengwa kwamanye amazwe bekuphansi uma kuqhathaniswa engxenyeni yokuqala yonyaka futhi kulindeleke ukuthi kukhuphuke kancane engxenyeni yesibili yonyaka njengoba ukuthengwa kwamanye amazwe kuya ngokuya kubuya.Engxenyeni yesibili yonyaka, kusenezinhlelo ezintsha zamandla okukhiqiza asekhaya ezizosetshenziswa, umthamo wepropylene uyaqhubeka nokukhula, ingcindezi yokuhlinzekwa kwemakethe ayinciphisi, umthelela ohlangothini lokunikezela usenamandla.

Uhlangothi lwesidingo, umholo oyinhloko we-polypropylene ezansi nomfula kanye nesimo sokuqalisa kuseyisici esibalulekile esithinta isidingo se-propylene, esinye isidingo samakhemikhali esingaphansi komfula kulindeleke ukuthi sizinze uma kuqhathaniswa.Ukucindezela phansi kungase kukhuphuke ngoNovemba nangoDisemba.

Sekukonke, inani lentengo ye-propylene engxenyeni yesibili yonyaka kungenzeka ukuthi likhuphuke bese liwa, futhi isikhungo samanani esimaphakathi sokudonsela phansi singase singabi phezulu njengengxenye yokuqala yonyaka.Isikhungo senani elimaphakathi lemakethe ye-propylene ye-Shandong engxenyeni yesibili yonyaka kulindeleke ukuthi ibe ngu-7700-7800 yuan/ton, ngebanga lentengo elingu-7000-8300 yuan/ton.

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