Kuye kwaqashelwa ukuthi amanani entengo yemikhiqizo yamakhemikhali emakethe ayaqhubeka nokwehla, okuholela ekungalinganini kwenani ezixhumanisini eziningi zochungechunge lwemboni yamakhemikhali.Amanani aphezulu kawoyela aqhubekayo akhuphule ingcindezi yezindleko ochungechungeni lwemboni yamakhemikhali, futhi umnotho wokukhiqizwa kwemikhiqizo eminingi yamakhemikhali umpofu.Kodwa-ke, intengo yemakethe ye-vinyl acetate nayo ihlangabezane nokwehla okuqhubekayo, kodwa inzuzo yokukhiqiza ihlale iphezulu futhi umnotho wokukhiqiza muhle.Ngakho-ke, kungani kungenzekai-vinyl acetateimakethe igcina izinga eliphezulu lokuchuma?

Maphakathi nasekupheleni kukaJuni 2023, intengo yemakethe ye-vinyl acetate ingu-6400 yuan/ton.Ngokwamazinga entengo yezinto zokusetshenziswa zendlela ye-ethylene kanye nendlela ye-calcium carbide, umkhawulo wenzuzo wendlela ye-ethylene i-vinyl acetate cishe u-14%, kuyilapho umkhawulo wenzuzo wendlela ye-calcium carbide i-vinyl acetate isesimweni sokulahlekelwa.Naphezu kokwehla okuqhubekayo kwentengo ye-vinyl acetate unyaka, umkhawulo wenzuzo we-ethylene esekelwe ku-vinyl acetate uhlala uphakeme uma uqhathaniswa, ufinyelela phezulu njengo-47% kwezinye izimo, ube umkhiqizo ophezulu wenzuzo yenzuzo phakathi kwamakhemikhali ayinqwaba.Ngokuphambene, indlela ye-calcium carbide ye-vinyl acetate ibisesimweni sokulahlekelwa ingxenye enkulu yeminyaka emibili edlule.

Ngokuhlaziya izinguquko emaphethelweni enzuzo e-ethylene esekelwe ku-vinyl acetate kanye ne-calcium carbide esekelwe ku-vinyl acetate, kutholakala ukuthi i-ethylene based vinyl acetate ibilokhu inenzuzo eminyakeni embalwa edlule, nenzuzo ephezulu kakhulu yenzuzo efinyelela ku-50% noma ngaphezulu kanye nesilinganiso. Izinga lenzuzo elinganiselwa ku-15%.Lokhu kukhombisa ukuthi i-ethylene esekelwe ku-vinyl acetate ibe nenzuzo ngokuqhathaniswa eminyakeni emibili edlule, ngokuchuma okuhle okuphelele kanye namamajini enzuzo azinzile.Eminyakeni emibili edlule, ngaphandle kwenzuzo enkulu kusukela ngoMashi 2022 kuya kuJulayi 2022, indlela ye-calcium carbide ye-vinyl acetate ibisesimweni sokulahlekelwa kuzo zonke ezinye izinkathi.Kusukela ngo-June 2023, izinga lemajini lenzuzo lendlela ye-calcium carbide i-vinyl acetate lalicishe libe ngu-20% wokulahlekelwa, futhi isilinganiso sesilinganiso senzuzo sendlela ye-calcium carbide vinyl acetate eminyakeni emibili edlule ibe ukulahlekelwa okungu-0.2%.Kulokhu, kungabonakala ukuthi ukuchuma kwendlela ye-calcium carbide ye-vinyl acetate impofu, futhi isimo jikelele sibonisa ukulahlekelwa.

Ngokuhlaziya okwengeziwe, izizathu eziyinhloko zenzuzo ephezulu yokukhiqizwa kwe-acetate esekelwe ku-ethylene zimi kanje: okokuqala, inani lezindleko zempahla eluhlaza ezinqubweni ezahlukene zokukhiqiza liyahlukahluka.Ngendlela ye-ethylene ye-vinyl acetate, ukusetshenziswa kweyunithi ye-ethylene ngu-0.35, kanti ukusetshenziswa kweyunithi ye-glacial acetic acid ngu-0.72.Ngokwesilinganiso senani lentengo ngoJuni 2023, i-ethylene ibiza cishe u-37% wezindleko ze-ethylene based vinyl acetate, kuyilapho i-glacial acetic acid yenza ama-45%.Ngakho-ke, ngomthelela wezindleko, ukuguquguquka kwentengo ye-glacial acetic acid kunomthelela omkhulu ekushintsheni kwezindleko ze-ethylene based vinyl acetate, elandelwa yi-ethylene.Ngokomthelela ezindlekweni zendlela ye-calcium carbide i-vinyl acetate, izindleko ze-calcium carbide ye-calcium carbide indlela i-vinyl acetate zenza cishe u-47%, kanye nezindleko ze-glacial acetic acid ye-calcium carbide method vinyl acetate akhawunti cishe ama-35% .Ngakho-ke, endleleni ye-calcium carbide ye-vinyl acetate, ukuguqulwa kwentengo ye-calcium carbide kunomthelela omkhulu ezindlekweni.Lokhu kuhluke kakhulu kumthelela wezindleko zendlela ye-ethylene.

Okwesibili, ukwehla kwezinto ezingavuthiwe i-ethylene kanye ne-glacial acetic acid kwakubalulekile, okuholele ekwehleni okukhulu kwezindleko.Ngonyaka odlule, intengo ye-CFR Northeast Asia ethylene yehle ngo-33%, futhi intengo ye-glacial acetic acid yehle ngo-32%.Kodwa-ke, izindleko ze-vinyl acetate ezikhiqizwa indlela ye-calcium carbide zivinjelwa kakhulu inani le-calcium carbide.Ngonyaka odlule, intengo ye-calcium carbide yehle ngo-25%.Ngakho-ke, ngokombono wezinqubo ezimbili zokukhiqiza ezihlukene, izindleko ze-vinyl acetate ezikhiqizwa indlela ye-ethylene zehle kakhulu, futhi ukunciphisa izindleko kukhulu kunendlela ye-calcium carbide.

Nakuba intengo ye-vinyl acetate yehlile, ukwehla kwayo akubalulekile njengamanye amakhemikhali.Ngokwezibalo, ngonyaka odlule, intengo ye-vinyl acetate yehle ngo-59%, okungase kubonakale kubalulekile, kodwa amanye amakhemikhali ahlangabezane nokuncipha okukhulu nakakhulu.Isimo samanje esibuthakathaka semakethe yamakhemikhali yaseShayina kunzima ukusishintsha.Kulindeleke ukuthi esikhathini esizayo, kunethuba elikhulu lokuthi inzuzo yokukhiqiza yemakethe yabathengi bokugcina, ikakhulukazi imikhiqizo efana ne-polyvinyl alcohol ne-EVA, izogcinwa ngokucindezela inzuzo ye-vinyl acetate.

Kunokungalingani okukhulu kwenani ochungechungeni lwamanje lwemboni yamakhemikhali, futhi imikhiqizo eminingi isesimweni sezindleko eziphakeme kodwa imakethe yabathengi ibuthaka, okuholela ekukhiqizweni komnotho ompofu.Kodwa-ke, naphezu kokubhekana nobunzima, imakethe ye-vinyl acetate iye yagcina izinga eliphezulu lenzuzo, ikakhulukazi ngenxa yengxenye ehlukene yezindleko zempahla eluhlaza enqubweni yayo yokukhiqiza kanye nokwehliswa kwezindleko okubangelwa ukwehla kwamanani ezinto ezingavuthiwe.Kodwa-ke, isimo esibuthakathaka semakethe yamakhemikhali yaseShayina yesikhathi esizayo kunzima ukusishintsha.Kulindeleke ukuthi esikhathini esizayo, kunethuba elikhulu lokuthi inzuzo yokukhiqiza yemakethe yabathengi bokugcina, ikakhulukazi imikhiqizo efana ne-polyvinyl alcohol ne-EVA, izogcinwa ngokucindezela inzuzo ye-vinyl acetate.