Ngo-2022, intengo kawoyela yamazwe ngamazwe yenyuka kakhulu, intengo yegesi yemvelo eYurophu nase-United States yenyuka kakhulu, ukungqubuzana phakathi kokunikezwa kwamalahle nokufunwa kwawo kwaqina, futhi inkinga yamandla yaqina.Ngokuvela okuphindaphindiwe kwezehlakalo zezempilo zasekhaya, imakethe yamakhemikhali ingene esimweni sokucindezela okuphindwe kabili kokuhlinzekwa kanye nesidingo.

Ukungena ku-2023, amathuba nezinselelo kuhlangene, kusukela ekukhuthazeni isidingo sasekhaya ngezinqubomgomo ezihlukahlukene kuya ekuvuleni ngokugcwele ukulawula
Ohlwini lwamanani entengo engxenyeni yokuqala kaJanuwari 2023, bekunezimpahla ezingama-43 emkhakheni wamakhemikhali ezikhuphuke ngenyanga nenyanga, kuhlanganisa nezimpahla ezi-5 ezikhuphuke ngaphezu kuka-10%, ezibalelwa ku-4.6% wezinto eziqashiwe. impahla embonini;Izimpahla ezintathu eziphezulu kwakuyi-MIBK (18.7%), i-propane (17.1%), i-1,4-butanediol (11.8%).Kunezimpahla ezingama-45 ezinokwehla kwenyanga nenyanga, kanye nezimpahla eziyisi-6 ezinokwehla okungaphezu kuka-10%, okubalelwa ku-5.6% yenani lempahla eqashwe ngeso lokhozi kulo mkhakha;Imikhiqizo emithathu ephezulu ekuncipheni kwakuyi-polysilicon (- 32.4%), i-coal tar (izinga lokushisa eliphezulu) (- 16.7%) ne-acetone (- 13.2%).Isilinganiso sebanga lokukhuphuka nokuwa belingu-0.1%.
Nyusa uhlu (khulisa ngaphezu kuka-5%)

Intengo ye-MIBK inyuke ngo-18.7%
Ngemuva koSuku LukaNcibijane, imakethe ye-MIBK ithintwa ukunikezwa okuqinile okulindelwe.Isilinganiso sentengo sikazwelonke sikhuphuke sisuka ku-14766 yuan/ton ngoJanuwari 2 saya ku-17533 yuan/ton ngoJanuwari 13.
1. Ukunikezwa kulindeleke ukuthi kuqine, amathani angu-50000/ngonyaka wemishini emikhulu izovalwa, futhi izinga lokusebenza lasekhaya lizokwehla lisuka ku-80% liye ku-40%.Ukunikezwa kwesikhashana kulindeleke ukuthi kuqine, okunzima ukukushintsha.
2. Ngemuva koSuku LukaNcibijane, imboni eyinhloko yokugcwalisa i-antioxidant engezansi yomfula, kanye nezimboni ezansi nomfula nazo ziphinda zigcwalise ngemva kwesikhathi sama-oda amancane.Njengoba iholidi lisondela, isidingo esingezansi somfula sama-oda amancane siyancipha, futhi ukumelana nezinto zokusetshenziswa ezinenani eliphezulu kusobala.Ngokuhlinzekwa kwezimpahla ezingenisiwe, intengo kancane kancane yafinyelela inani eliphakeme futhi ukukhuphuka kwehla.

Intengo ye-propane ikhuphuke ngo-17.1%
Ngo-2023, imakethe ye-propane yaqala kahle, futhi intengo emaphakathi yemakethe ye-Shandong propane yenyuka isuka ku-5082 yuan/ton ngomhlaka-2 kuya ku-5920 yuan/ton ngomhla ka-14, ngenani elimaphakathi lamayuan/ton angu-6000 ngomhlaka-11.
1. Ekuqaleni, intengo emakethe yasenyakatho yayiphansi, isidingo esingezansi sasizinzile, futhi ibhizinisi laphelelwa isitokwe ngempumelelo.Ngemva komkhosi, ezansi nomfula zaqala ukugcwalisa izimpahla ngezigaba, kuyilapho i-inventory ekhuphukayo iphansi.Ngesikhathi esifanayo, umthamo wakamuva wokufika echwebeni uphansi kakhulu, ukunikezwa kwemakethe kuyancipha, futhi intengo ye-propane iqala ukukhuphuka kakhulu.
2. Enye i-PDH iphinde yaqala ukusebenza futhi isidingo semboni yamakhemikhali sakhula kakhulu.Ngokusekelwa okudingekayo nje, amanani e-propane kulula ukukhuphuka futhi kunzima ukuwa.Ngemuva kweholidi, intengo ye-propane yaphakama, ibonisa isimo sokunamandla enyakatho futhi ebuthakathaka eningizimu.Esikhathini sokuqala, i-arbitrage yokuthekelisa yemithombo yezimpahla ezisezingeni eliphansi emakethe esenyakatho yehlise ngempumelelo i-inventory.Ngenxa yentengo ephezulu, izimpahla emakethe eseningizimu azisheleli, futhi amanani alungisiwe ngokulandelana.Njengoba iholidi lisondela, ezinye izimboni zingena kumodi yamaholide, futhi izisebenzi ezifudukayo zibuyela ekhaya kancane kancane.
I-1.4-Butanediol intengo ikhuphuke ngo-11.8%
Ngemuva komkhosi, intengo yendali yemboni yenyuka kakhulu, futhi intengo ye-1.4-butanediol yenyuka isuka ku-9780 yuan/ton ngomhlaka-2 kuya ku-10930 yuan/ton ngomhla ka-13.
1. Amabhizinisi akhiqizayo awazimisele ukuthengisa imakethe yendawo.Ngasikhathi sinye, indali yendawo kanye nokuthengiselana okuphezulu kwamabhidi ezimboni ezinkulu kukhuthaza ukugxila kwemakethe ukuthi kukhuphuke.Ngaphezu kokupaka nokugcinwa kahle kwesigaba sokuqala se-Tokyo Biotech, umthwalo wemboni wehlile kancane, futhi amabhizinisi akhiqizayo ayaqhubeka nokuletha ama-oda enkontileka.Izinga lokuhlinzekwa kwe-BDO ngokusobala liyathandeka.
2. Ngokukhula kokulayishwa kabusha kwemishini ye-BASF e-Shanghai, isidingo semboni ye-PTMEG sinyukile, kuyilapho ezinye izimboni ezisezansi nomfula zinoshintsho oluncane, futhi isidingo singcono kancane.Kodwa-ke, njengoba iholidi lisondela, ezinye izindawo ezimaphakathi neziphansi zingena endaweni yeholide kusengaphambili, futhi ivolumu yokuhweba emakethe ilinganiselwe.
Uhlu lokudedela (ngaphansi kuka-5%)

I-acetone yehle ngo-13.2%
Imakethe ye-acetone yasekhaya yehle kakhulu, futhi intengo yezimboni zaseMpumalanga China yehla isuka ku-550 yuan/ton yaya ku-4820 yuan/ton.
1. Izinga lokusebenza le-acetone laliseduze ne-85%, futhi i-inventory yechweba ikhuphuke yaba amathani angu-32000 ngo-9, ikhuphuka ngokushesha, futhi ingcindezi yokuhlinzeka yanda.Ngaphansi kwengcindezi ye-inventory yefekthri, umnikazi unentshiseko enkulu yokuthunyelwa.Ngokukhiqizwa okubushelelezi kwe-Shenghong Refining kanye ne-Chemical Phenol Ketone Plant, ingcindezi yokuhlinzeka kulindeleke ukuthi ikhule.
2. Ukuthengwa kwe-acetone okwehla ngomfula kuyavilapha.Nakuba imakethe ye-MIBK ezansi nomfula ikhuphuke kakhulu, isidingo sasingenele ukwehlisa izinga lokusebenza endaweni ephansi.Ukubamba iqhaza komlamuli kuphansi.Zehle kakhulu lapho ukuthengiselana kwemakethe kunganakwa.Ngokuwohloka kwemakethe, ingcindezi yokulahlekelwa yamabhizinisi e-phenolic ketone iyanda.Izimboni eziningi zilinda ukuthi imakethe icace ngaphambi kokuthenga ngemuva kweholide.Ngaphansi kwengcindezi yenzuzo, umbiko wemakethe wayeka ukuwa futhi wavuka.Imakethe kancane kancane yacaca ngemva kweholide.
Ukuhlaziywa kwe-Aftermarket
Ngokombono kawoyela ongahluziwe okhuphuka nomfula, isiphepho sakamuva sasebusika sihlasele i-United States, futhi uwoyela ongahluziwe kulindeleke ukuthi ube nomthelela ophansi, futhi ukusekelwa kwezindleko zemikhiqizo ye-petrochemical kuzoba buthaka.Ngokuhamba kwesikhathi, imakethe kawoyela ayibhekani kuphela nengcindezi enkulu kanye nezingqinamba zomjikelezo wokuwohloka komnotho, kodwa futhi ibhekene nomdlalo phakathi kokuhlinzekwa nokufunwa.Ohlangothini lokunikezela, kunengozi yokuthi ukukhiqizwa kweRussia kuzokwehla.Ukuncishiswa kwe-OEPC+ kuzosekela ezansi.Mayelana nesidingo, isekelwa ukuvinjwa kwe-macro-cycle, ukuvinjelwa kwesidingo esivilaphayo eYurophu kanye nokukhula kwesidingo e-Asia.Ithintwa yizikhundla ezinkulu nezincane ezinde nezimfushane, imakethe kawoyela kungenzeka ihlale iguquguquka.
Ngokombono wabathengi, izinqubomgomo zezomnotho zasekhaya zihambisana ngokusobala nomjikelezo omkhulu wasekhaya futhi zenza umsebenzi omuhle womjikelezo ophindwe kabili wamazwe ngamazwe nowasekhaya.Enkathini yangemva kobhubhane, yakhululeka ngokugcwele, kodwa iqiniso elingenakugwemeka laliwukuthi inkampane yayisebuthakathaka futhi isimo sokulinda nokubona sakhula ngemva kobuhlungu.Ngokuphathelene namatheminali, izinqubomgomo zokulawula zasekhaya zenziwe zathuthukiswa, kanye nokusetshenziswa kanye nokuzethemba kwabathengi sekubuyisiwe.Kodwa-ke, amatheminali esikhathi esifushane adinga isizini engekho yoMkhosi Wasentwasahlobo, futhi kungase kube nzima ukuba noshintsho olubalulekile esikhathini sokutakula.
Ngo-2023, umnotho waseShayina uzosimama kancane kancane, kodwa ngenxa yokuwohloka komnotho emhlabeni wonke kanye nokuqina okulindelekile kokuwohloka komnotho e-Europe nase-United States, imakethe yemikhiqizo ethunyelwa ngaphandle yaseChina isazobhekana nezinselele.Ngo-2023, amandla okukhiqiza amakhemikhali azoqhubeka nokukhula kancane kancane.Ngonyaka odlule, amandla okukhiqiza amakhemikhali asekhaya akhule kancane kancane, njengoba ama-80% emikhiqizo eyinhloko yamakhemikhali ekhombisa inkambiso yokukhula kanye nokwehla ngama-5% kuphela kwamandla okukhiqiza.Ngokuzayo, eqhutshwa imishini esekelayo nochungechunge lwenzuzo, amandla okukhiqiza amakhemikhali azoqhubeka nokukhula, futhi ukuncintisana kwezimakethe kungase kuqhubeke kudlondlobala.Amabhizinisi okunzima ukwenza izinzuzo zeketango lezimboni esikhathini esizayo azobhekana nenzuzo noma ingcindezi, kodwa futhi azoqeda amandla okukhiqiza abuyela emuva.Ngo-2023, amabhizinisi amakhulu naphakathi nendawo azogxila ekukhuleni kwezimboni ezansi nomfula.Ngokuthuthuka okuqhubekayo kwezobuchwepheshe basekhaya, ukuvikelwa kwemvelo, izinto ezintsha ezisezingeni eliphezulu, ama-electrolyte namaketanga embonini yamandla omoya ziya ngokuya zisaziswa amabhizinisi amakhulu.Ngaphansi kwesizinda sekhabhoni ephindwe kabili, amabhizinisi asemuva azoqedwa ngesivinini esisheshayo.