Ngo-2022, intengo kawoyela yamazwe omhlaba ikhule kakhulu, intengo yemvelo yemvelo eYurophu nase-United States ikhule kakhulu, ukungqubuzana okuphakathi kokuhlinzekwa kwamalahle nokufunwa kwaqina, futhi inkinga yamandla yaqina. Ngokuvela okuphindaphindiwe kwemicimbi yezempilo yasekhaya, imakethe yamakhemikhali ingene esimweni sokucindezela okuphindwe kabili kokuhlinzekwa kanye nesidingo.

Ukungena kuma-2023, amathuba nezinselelo coexist, kusuka ekuvuseleleni izidingo zasekhaya ngezinqubomgomo ezahlukahlukene zokuvula ngokuphelele ukulawula
Uhlu lwamanani entengo yezimpahla engxenyeni yokuqala yangoJanuwari 2023, kwakukhona izimpahla ezingama-43 emkhakheni wamakhemikhali ovuka inyanga-izinyanga, kufaka phakathi izimpahla ezi-5 ezivuka ama-4,6% aqashelwe izimpahla ezikhona embonini; Izimpahla ezintathu eziphezulu kwakuyi-mibk (18.7%), i-propane (17.1%), 1,4-butanediol (11.8%). Kunezimpahla ezingama-45 ezinokwehla kwenyanga - okwehla inyanga enyangeni, kanye nezimpahla ezi-6 ngokuwohloka okungaphezulu kwe-10%, accounting ngo-5.6% wenani lezimpahla ezibhekisiwe kulo mkhakha; Imikhiqizo emithathu ephezulu ekwehlisweni kwakuyi-polysilicon (- 32.4%), i-coal tar (lokushisa eliphakeme) (- 16.7%) ne-acetone (- 13.2%). Ukunyuka okumaphakathi nokuwa kwalo kwakungu-0.1%.
Uhlu lokukhuphula (ukukhuphuka okungaphezulu kuka-5%)

Intengo ye-Mibk ikhuphuke ngo-18.7%
Ngemuva kosuku loNyaka oMusha, imakethe ye-MIBK yathinteka ngokulindelwe kokuhlinzekwa ngokuqinile. Intengo ephakathi kazwelonke yasukuma isuka ku-14766 yuan / Ton ngoJanuwari 2 kuya ku-17533 yuan / ton ngoJanuwari 13.
1. Ukuhlinzekwa kulindeleke ukuthi kuqine, amathani angama-50000 / unyaka wemishini emikhulu azovalwa phansi, futhi izinga lokusebenza elisebenza ekhaya lizokwehla lisuka ku-80% libe ngu-40%. Ukuhlinzekwa kwesikhashana kulindeleke ukuthi kuqine, okunzima ukushintsha.
2. Ngemuva kosuku loNyaka oMusha, ukugcwaliswa komkhakha okuyinhloko okuphezulu kwe-antioxidant, kanye namafektri aphansi futhi abuyele emuva ngemuva kwenkathi yemiyalo emincane. Njengoba iholide lisondela, isidingo esiphansi semiyalo emincane siyancipha, futhi ukumelana nezinto zokwakha eziphakeme ezinamanani aphezulu kusobala. Ngokuhlinzekwa kwezimpahla ezingenisiwe, inani lentengo lafika kancane kancane kancane futhi kukhuphuka kwehle.

Intengo yePropane ikhuphuke ngo-17.1%
Ngo-2023, imakethe ye-propane yaqala kahle, futhi intengo ephakathi ye-Shandong Propase Market yasuka ku-5082 yuan / ton ku-2920 yuan / ithoni ngomhlaka 14000 yuan / ton ngomhlaka 11000.
1. Esesigabeni sokuqala, intengo emakethe yasenyakatho yayiphansi, okufunwa ngumfula kwakuzinzile, futhi ibhizinisi lisebenza ngempumelelo. Ngemuva komkhosi, i-Downstream yaqala ukuphinda igcwalise izimpahla ezigabeni, kuyilapho i-Upstream Desentory yayiphansi. Ngasikhathi sinye, ivolumu yokufika yakamuva ethekwini iphansi, ukunikezwa kwemakethe kuyancishiswa, futhi intengo ye-propane iqala ukukhuphuka ngamandla.
2. Eminye i-PDH iqale kabusha umsebenzi futhi isidingo semboni yamakhemikhali sikhuphuke kakhulu. Ngokusekelwa okudingekayo nje, amanani entengo kulula ukusukuma futhi kunzima ukuwa. Ngemuva kweholide, intengo yePropase yasukuma, ekhombisa into enamandla enyakatho futhi ibuthakathaka eningizimu. Esekuqaleni, ukuqondiswa kokuthekelisa okuyisisekelo kwemithombo yempahla ephansi emakethe yasenyakatho incishiswe ngempumelelo yokusungula. Ngenxa yentengo ephezulu, izimpahla ezisemakethe eseningizimu azibushelelezi, futhi amanani entengo alungisiwe ngokulandelana. Njengoba iholide lisondela, amafektri athile angena kwimodi yamaholide, futhi abasebenzi abafudukayo kancane kancane babuyela ekhaya.
Intengo engu-1.4-Butanediol ikhuphuke ngo-11.8%
Ngemuva komkhosi, intengo yendali yomkhakha ikhule kakhulu, futhi intengo ka-1.4-Butanediol yasukuma kusukela ngo-9780 yuan / ton ku-2930 yuan / ton ngomhlaka 13.
1. Amabhizinisi okukhiqiza awafuni ukuthengisa imakethe yebala. Ngasikhathi sinye, indali ye-Spot kanye nokuthengiselana okuphezulu kwamafektri amakhulu kukhuthaza ukugxila kwemakethe ukukhuphuka. Ngaphezu kokupaka kanye nokugcinwa kwesigaba sokuqala seTokyo Biotech, umthwalo wemboni wehle kancane, futhi amabhizinisi okukhiqiza ayaqhubeka nokuletha ama-oda wenkontileka. Izinga lokuhlinzekwa kwe-BDO kusobala.
2. Ngokukhuphuka komthwalo wokuqalisa kabusha kwemishini ye-BASF eShanghai, isidingo somkhakha we-PTMEG senyuke, kanti ezinye izimboni ezansize zinoshintsho oluncane, futhi isidingo singcono kancane. Kodwa-ke, njengoba kusondela amaholide, amanye aphakathi nendawo aphansi angena esifundazweni samaholide kusenesikhathi, futhi ivolumu yokuhweba ngemakethe yonke lilinganiselwe.
Uhlu lwe-Drop (ngaphansi kuka-5%)

I-Acetone yawa ngo - 13.2%
Imakethe yasekhaya ye-Acetone yawa ngamandla, futhi intengo ye-East China Factories yehle isuka ku-550 yuan / ton kuya ku-4820 yuan / ton.
1 Ngaphansi kwengcindezi yokusungula kwefekthri, umnikazi unomdlandla omkhulu wokuthumela. Ngokukhiqizwa okubushelelezi kweShengHong Refining kanye nesitshalo samakhemikhali se-Phenol Ketone, kulindeleke ukuthi ingcindezi yokuphakelayo iyanda.
2. Ukuthengwa kwe-Downstream ye-Acetone kuvilapha. Yize imakethe ye-DownTream Mibk ikhule kakhulu, isidingo sasinganele ukunciphisa inani lokusebenza liye endaweni ephansi. Ukubamba iqhaza okuthe xaxa kuphansi. Bawa ngamandla lapho ukuthengiselana kwemakethe bekunganakwa. Ngokuwohloka kwemakethe, ingcindezi yokulahleka kwamabhizinisi we-phenolic wetone ayanda. Amafektri amaningi alindele imakethe ukuthi acace ngaphambi kokuthenga ngemuva kweholide. Ngaphansi kwengcindezi yenzuzo, umbiko wemakethe wayeka ukuwa kwavuka. Imakethe kancane kancane yacaca ngemuva kweholide.
Ukuhlaziywa Kwangemuva Kwe-Aftermarket
Ngokombono wamafutha e-Upstream Crude Oil, isivunguvungu sasebusika sakamuva sishaye i-United States, kanti uwoyela ongahluziwe kulindeleke ukuba abe nomthelela ophansi, futhi ukusekelwa kwezindleko zemikhiqizo ye-petrochemical kuzobuthakathaka. Ngokuhamba kwesikhathi, imakethe kawoyela ayigcini ngokubhekana nengcindezi ye-macro nezomnotho wezomnotho, kepha futhi ibhekene nomdlalo phakathi kokuhlinzekwa kanye nesidingo. Ngasohlangothini lokuhlinzekwa, kunobungozi bokukhiqizwa kweRussia kuyokwehla. Ukuncishiswa kokukhiqizwa kwe-OEPC kuxhasa phansi. Ngokuya ngesidingo, kusekelwa yi-Macro-Cycle Evition - Ukuvinjwa Kwe-Sluggish Dead e-Europe nokufuna ukukhula e-Asia. Ethintwa yi-macro kanye nezikhundla ezinde nezifushane, imakethe kawoyela kungenzeka ukuthi ihlale iguquguqukayo.
Ngokombono wabathengi, izinqubomgomo zezomnotho zasekhaya zinamathela ngokucacile kumjikelezo omkhulu wasekhaya futhi wenze umsebenzi omuhle womjikelezo ophindwe kabili wasekhaya. Esikhathini se-post-ubhubhane, bekukhululeka ngokuphelele, kepha iqiniso elingenakugwenywa yilolo ibhizinisi lalisabuthakathaka futhi nokubona isimo sezinhlungu. Ngokuya kwama-terminals, izinqubomgomo zokulawula izindlu zasekhaya zenziwe kahle, kanye nezinto zokufunda nokuzethemba kwabathengi zibuyiselwe. Kodwa-ke, izikhungo zesikhashana zesikhashana zidinga inkathi ye-off umkhosi wasentwasahlobo, futhi kungaba nzima ukuba nokuguquguquka okubalulekile esikhathini sokutakula.
Ngo-2023, ezomnotho zakwaChina zizolulama kancane, kepha lapho zibhekene nokwehla komnotho emhlabeni jikelele kanye nokuqina okulindelekile kokuwohloka komnotho eYurophu eYurophu nase-United States, imakethe yokuthumela ngaphandle yaseChina yemikhiqizo eminingi izobhekana nezinselelo. Ngo-2023, umthamo wokukhiqizwa kwamakhemikhali uzoqhubeka nokukhula ngokuqinile. Ngonyaka owedlule, umthamo wokukhiqiza amakhemikhali wasekhaya ukhuphuke ngokuqinile, ngama-80% emikhiqizo eyinhloko yamakhemikhali ekhombisa ukuthambekela kokukhula futhi kuphela ama-5% okukhiqiza okuncipha. Ngokuzayo, eqhutshwa yimishini esekelayo kanye ne-inzuzo chain, umthamo wokukhiqiza amakhemikhali uzoqhubeka ukunwebeka, futhi ukuncintisana kwemakethe kungaqinisa futhi. Amabhizinisi okunzima ukwakha izinzuzo ze-Industrial Chain Esikhathini esizayo zizobhekana nenzuzo noma ingcindezi, kodwa futhi zizoqeda amandla okukhiqiza emuva emuva. Ngo-2023, amabhizinisi amakhulu aphakathi nendawo azogxila ekukhuleni kwezimboni ezaphansi. Ngokuphumelela okuqhubekayo kubuchwepheshe basekhaya, ukuvikelwa kwemvelo, izinto ezintsha eziphakeme, ama-electrolyte kanye namaketanga emboni yamandla omoya kuya ngokuya kubhekwa amabhizinisi amakhulu. Ngaphansi kwesizinda sekhabhoni ephindwe kabili, amabhizinisi abuyela emuva azoqedwa ngejubane elisheshayo.