Engxenyeni yokuqala ka-2022, imakethe yasekhaya ye-ethylene glycol izoshintshashintsha emdlalweni wezindleko eziphezulu kanye nesidingo esiphansi.Esimweni sokungqubuzana phakathi kweRussia ne-Ukraine, intengo kawoyela ongahluziwe iqhubekile nokukhuphuka engxenyeni yokuqala yonyaka, okuholele ekwenyukeni kwentengo yezinto zokusetshenziswa kanye nokwenyuka kwegebe lentengo phakathi kwe-naphtha ne-ethylene glycol.
Yize ngaphansi kwengcindezi yezindleko, amafekthri amaningi e-ethylene glycol ehlise umthwalo wawo, ukuqhubeka kobhubhane lwe-COVID-19 kuholele ekuncipheni okukhulu kwesidingo esibulalayo, ubuthakathaka obuqhubekayo besidingo se-ethylene glycol, ukuqhubeka nokuqoqwa kwempahla echwebeni, kanye nokusha okusha. unyaka phezulu.Intengo ye-ethylene glycol iye yaguquguquka kugeyimu phakathi kwengcindezi yezindleko nokunikezwa okubuthakathaka nesidingo, futhi ngokuyisisekelo iguquguquke phakathi kuka-4500-5800 yuan/ton engxenyeni yokuqala yonyaka.Ngokuvutshelwa okuqhubekayo kwenhlekelele yokuwohloka komnotho emhlabeni wonke, ukuguquguquka kwentengo yekusasa likawoyela ongahluziwe kwehlile, futhi nokusekelwa ohlangothini lwezindleko kuye kwaba buthaka.Kodwa-ke, isidingo se-polyester esezansi nomfula siqhubekile nokuba sivilapha.Ngokucindezelwa kwezimali, imakethe ye-ethylene glycol yaqinisa ukwehla kwayo engxenyeni yesibili yonyaka, futhi intengo yashaya ngokuphindaphindiwe ukwehla okusha ngonyaka.Ekuqaleni kukaNovemba 2022, intengo ephansi yehle yaya ku-3740 yuan/ton.
Ukwethulwa okuqhubekayo kwamandla amasha okukhiqiza kanye nokunikezwa kwempahla yasekhaya okukhuphukayo
Kusukela ngo-2020, imboni ye-ethylene glycol yaseChina ingene emjikelezweni omusha wokukhulisa ukukhiqizwa.Amadivayisi ahlanganisiwe angamandla amakhulu okukhula komthamo wokukhiqiza we-ethylene glycol.Kodwa-ke, ngo-2022, ukukhiqizwa kwamayunithi ahlanganisiwe kuzohlehliswa kakhulu, futhi kuzosebenza kuphela i-Zhenhai Petrochemical Phase II kanye ne-Zhejiang Petrochemical Unit 3.Ukukhula kwamandla okukhiqiza ngo-2022 kuzovela ikakhulukazi ezitshalweni zamalahle.
Ekupheleni kukaNovemba 2022, umthamo wokukhiqiza we-ethylene glycol waseChina usufinyelele amathani ayizigidi ezingama-24.585, okuwukunyuka konyaka ngo-27%, okuhlanganisa cishe amathani ayizigidi ezi-3.7 omthamo omusha wokukhiqiza amalahle.
Ngokwedatha yokuqapha imakethe yoMnyango Wezohwebo, kusukela ngoJanuwari kuya kuNovemba 2022, intengo yansuku zonke yamalahle kagesi ezweni lonke izohlala ngaphakathi kwebanga elingu-891-1016 yuan/ton.Intengo yamalahle iguquguquke kakhulu engxenyeni yokuqala yonyaka, futhi umkhuba wawuphansi engxenyeni yesibili.
Izingozi ze-geopolitical, i-COVID-19 kanye nenqubomgomo yezimali ye-Federal Reserve iphethe umthelela onamandla kawoyela ongahluziwe wamazwe ngamazwe ngo-2022. Ngokuthintwa ukuthambekela okuthambile kwamanani amalahle, izinzuzo zezomnotho zamalahle glycol kufanele zithuthukiswe, kodwa isimo sangempela. akanalo ithemba.Ngenxa yesidingo esibuthakathaka kanye nomthelela wokukhiqizwa kwe-inthanethi okumaphakathi komthamo omusha kulo nyaka, izinga lokusebenza kwezitshalo zamalahle ezifuywayo ze-glycol lehle laya cishe ku-30% kwikota yesithathu, kanti umthwalo wokusebenza wonyaka kanye nenzuzo bekuphansi kakhulu kunalokho obekulindelwe yimakethe.
Isamba esiphumayo samanye amandla okukhiqiza amalahle ethulwe engxenyeni yesibili ka-2022 silinganiselwe.Ngaphansi kwesisekelo sokusebenza okuzinzile, ingcindezi ohlangothini lokunikezwa kwamalahle ingase ijule nakakhulu ngo-2023.
Ngaphezu kwalokho, amayunithi amaningi amasha e-ethylene glycol ahlelelwe ukuthi aqale ukusebenza ngo-2023, futhi kulinganiselwa ukuthi izinga lokukhula kwamandla okukhiqiza i-ethylene glycol eChina lizohlala licishe libe ngama-20% ngo-2023.

Izikhungo zezezimali zamazwe ngamazwe zibikezela ukuthi intengo kawoyela ongahluziwe yamazwe ngamazwe izohlala isezingeni eliphezulu ngo-2023, ukucindezelwa kwezindleko eziphakeme kusazoba khona, futhi umthwalo wokuqala we-ethylene glycol ungase ube nzima ukukhuphula, okuzonciphisa ukukhula kokuhlinzekwa kwasekhaya. ngezinga elithile.
Kunzima ukukhulisa umthamo wokungenisa, kanye nokuncika kokungenisa noma ukwehla okwengeziwe
Kusukela ngoJanuwari kuya kuNovemba 2022, umthamo wokungenisa we-ethylene glycol waseChina uzoba amathani ayizigidi ezingu-6.96, ngaphansi ngo-10% kunesikhathi esifanayo ngonyaka odlule.
Bheka ngokucophelela idatha yokungenisa.Ngaphandle kwe-Saudi Arabia, Canada kanye ne-United States, umthamo wokungenisa weminye imithombo yehlile.Umthamo wokungenisa waseTaiwan,

ISingapore nezinye izindawo zehle kakhulu.

Ngakolunye uhlangothi, ukwehla kokungeniswa kwamanye amazwe kungenxa yengcindezi yezindleko, futhi iningi lemishini yaqala ukwehla.Ngakolunye uhlangothi, ngenxa yokwehla okuqhubekayo kwamanani entengo yaseShayina, umdlandla wabahlinzeki bokuthumela eChina wehle kakhulu.Okwesithathu, ngenxa yobuthakathaka bemakethe ye-polyester yaseChina, ukuqala kwemishini kwehlile, nesidingo sezinto ezingavuthiwe saba buthaka.
Ngo-2022, ukuncika kweChina ekuthengisweni kwe-ethylene glycol kuzokwehla kuye ku-39.6%, futhi kulindeleke ukuthi kuqhubeke ukwehla ngo-2023.
Kubikwa ukuthi i-OPEC+ ingase iqhubeke nokunciphisa ukukhiqizwa kamuva, futhi ukunikezwa kwezinto zokusetshenziswa eMpumalanga Ephakathi kusazongenelela.Ngaphansi kwengcindezi yezindleko, ukwakhiwa kwezitshalo zangaphandle ze-ethylene glycol, ikakhulukazi lezo zase-Asia, kunzima ukuthuthukisa kakhulu.Ukwengeza, abahlinzeki bazo basazobeka phambili ezinye izifunda.Kuthiwa abanye abahlinzeki bazo bazonciphisa izinkontileka zabo namakhasimende aseChina ngesikhathi sezingxoxo zenkontileka ngo-2023.
Mayelana namandla amasha okukhiqiza, i-India ne-Iran bahlela ukwethula imakethe ekupheleni kuka-2022 nasekuqaleni kuka-2023. Amandla okukhiqiza e-India asahlinzekwa ikakhulukazi endaweni, futhi imininingwane yokuthunyelwa kwemishini yase-Iran e-China ingase ibe nomkhawulo uma kuqhathaniswa.
Isidingo esibuthakathaka e-Europe nase-United States sikhawulela amathuba okuthekelisa
Ngokusho kwedatha evela ku-ICIS database supply and demand database, kusukela ngoJanuwari kuya kuNovemba 2022, umthamo wokuthekelisa we-ethylene glycol waseChina uzoba amathani angama-38500, wehle ngo-69% uma uqhathaniswa nesikhathi esifanayo ngonyaka odlule.
Uma sibhekisisa idatha yokuthekelisa, ngo-2022, i-China yandisa ukuthunyelwa kwayo e-Bangladesh, futhi ngo-2021, ukuthunyelwa kwe-Europe kanye ne-Türkiye, izindawo ezihamba phambili zokuthumela ngaphandle, kuzokwehla kakhulu.Ngakolunye uhlangothi, ngenxa yobuthakathaka obuphelele besidingo saphesheya kwezilwandle, ngakolunye uhlangothi, ngenxa yomthamo oqinile wokuthutha, umthwalo uphezulu.

Ngokunwetshwa okwengeziwe kwemishini yaseShayina, kubalulekile ukuphuma ekuthenelweni.Ngokuncishiswa kwesiminyaminya kanye nokwenyuka kwamandla okuthutha, izinga lempahla lingase liqhubeke nokwehla ngo-2023, okuzophinde kuzuzise imakethe yangaphandle.
Kodwa-ke, lapho umnotho womhlaba ungena emjikelezweni wokuwohloka komnotho, isidingo se-Europe ne-United States singase sibe nzima ukuthuthuka kakhulu futhi siqhubeke nokukhawulela ukuthunyelwa kwe-ethylene glycol yaseChina.Abathengisi baseShayina badinga ukubheka amathuba okuthekelisa kwezinye izifunda ezisafufusa.
Izinga lokukhula kwesidingo liphansi kunokunikezwa
Ngo-2022, umthamo omusha we-polyester uzoba amathani ayizigidi ezingu-4.55, nokukhula konyaka cishe ngo-7%, okusalawulwa ukwanda kwamabhizinisi e-polyester ahamba phambili.Kubikwa ukuthi imishini eminingi ebihlelelwe ukukhiqizwa kulo nyaka ibambezelekile.
Isimo sonke semakethe ye-polyester ngo-2022 asenelisi.Ukuqubuka okuqhubekayo kwalolu bhubhane kunomthelela omkhulu esidingweni sesiphetho.Isidingo esintengayo sasekhaya kanye nokuthekelisa kwamanye amazwe kwenze imboni ye-polyester yagcwala amandla.Ukuqala kwalo msebenzi kuphansi kakhulu kunesikhathi esifanayo ngonyaka odlule.

Esimeni somnotho samanje, ababambiqhaza bemakethe abanakho ukuzethemba ekubuyiseni isidingo.Ukuthi umthamo omusha we-polyester ungafakwa ngesikhathi yini kuwushintsho olukhulu, ikakhulukazi kwezinye izinto ezincane.Ngo-2023, umthamo omusha we-polyester ungase uhlale ku-4-5 million amathani / ngonyaka, futhi izinga lokukhula kwamandla lingase lihlale cishe ku-7%.

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