1.1 Ukuhlaziywa kwethrendi yemakethe ye-BPA yekota yokuqala

Ngekota yokuqala ka-2023, inani elimaphakathi le-bisphenol A emakethe yaseMpumalanga China lalingu-9,788 yuan / ton, -21.68% YoY, -44.72% YoY.2023 Januwari-Februwari i-bisphenol A iyashintshashintsha eduze komugqa wezindleko ku-9,600-10,300 yuan / ton.Ekuqaleni kukaJanuwari, kanye nomkhathi woNyaka Omusha WaseShayina, futhi abanye abakhiqizi ngaphambi komkhosi ukuvumela umugqa wenzuzo, isikhungo semakethe sokudonsela phansi sawela ku-9,650 yuan / ton.Emasontweni amabili ngaphambi nangemva koMkhosi Wasentwasahlobo, umfula ugcwalisa izikhundla, futhi ngemva komkhosi amanani kawoyela akhuphuka akhuphula ukuxhumana kwemboni, i-bisphenol A abakhiqizi abakhulu banikeza ukukhuphuka, imakethe yaphakama, izingxoxo ezivamile zaseMpumalanga China zafinyelela ku-10200- 10300 yuan / ton, February main inkontilaki ukugayeka kokudla ezansi komfula kanye yokusungula emakethe ezizungeze intengo 10,000 yuan eguquguqukayo ewumngcingo.Ukungena ngoMashi, ukubuyiselwa kwesidingo esibulalayo kwahamba kancane, futhi kwagqanyiswa ukungqubuzana phakathi kokunikezwa kanye nesidingo emakethe, kuhambisana nezenzakalo zengozi yezezimali eYurophu nasemabhange aseMelika, okuholele ekwehleni kwentengo kawoyela ukucindezela isimo semakethe. , isimo esifushane semakethe sasisobala.Ukubuyiselwa kwetheminali ephansi komfula kuncane kunalokho obekulindelwe, umthwalo we-epoxy resin uqala ukukhuphuka bese uwela ku-inventory, isikhungo se-PC somandla adonsela phansi sathamba, ukunikezwa kwemakethe kanye nokungqubuzana kwesidingo kugqanyisiwe, okuhambisana nezehlakalo zengozi yezezimali eziholela emananini kawoyela kanye nokubuyiswa kwamakhemikhali ayisisekelo ukuze kucindezelwe. imizwa yemakethe, i-bisphenol A kanye nokuvumelanisa kwemakethe ephansi komfula ukwehla, kusukela ngomhlaka-31 Mashi, izintengo ze-bisphenol A zehle ziye ku-9300 yuan / ton.

1.2 Ibhalansi yokuhlinzeka nge-bisphenol A kanye nesidingo ngekota yokuqala

Ngekota yokuqala ka-2023, isimo sokugcwala ngokweqile kwe-bisphenol A yaseChina sisobala.Ngaleso sikhathi, i-Wanhua Chemical Phase II kanye ne-Guangxi Huayi BPA yahlanganisa amathani angu-440,000/ngonyaka wamayunithi amasha aqala ukusebenza, futhi umsebenzi usuwonke wawuzinzile, okwandisa ukunikezwa kwemakethe.I-downstream epoxy resin ngokuyisisekelo iyafana nesikhathi esifanayo ngonyaka odlule, i-PC kanye namandla amasha okukhiqiza kanye nezinga lokuqalisa imboni, ukukhula kokusetshenziswa cishe ngama-30%, kodwa izinga lokukhula kokuhlinzekwa liphezulu kunezinga lokukhula kwesidingo, i-bisphenol. Igebe lokuhlinzeka nesidingo likhule lafinyelela kumathani ayi-131,000 kwikota yokuqala.

1.3 Ingxenye yesine yeshidi ledatha yokwenziwa kochungechunge lwemboni

Ikota ye-bisphenol A ehlobene namathebula edatha ochungechunge lomkhakha okhuphuka nomfula ophansi

2.Isibikezelo semboni ye-Bisphenol A engxenyeni yesibili

2.1 Isibikezelo sokuhlinzekwa komkhiqizo nesidingo sekota yesibili

2.1.1 Isibikezelo sokukhiqiza

Umthamo omusha: engxenyeni yesibili, idivayisi yasekhaya ye-bisphenol A ayicaci kahle izinhlelo ezintsha zokukhiqiza.Ethintwe ubuthakathaka bemakethe kanye nenzuzo yemboni etholwe ngokuphawulekayo, amanye amathuluzi amasha aqala ukusebenza kunalokho obekulindelwe ukubambezeleka, ekupheleni kwekota yesibili, inani lokukhiqiza lasekhaya eliphelele lamathani angu-4,265,000 / ngonyaka.

Ukulahleka kwedivayisi: ikota yesibili ye-bisphenol yasekhaya Ukulungiswa kabusha kwedivayisi okuphakathi nendawo, ngokusho kocwaningo lweLonzhong, ikota yesibili yokulungiswa okujwayelekile kwezinkampani ezimbili, umthamo wokulungisa amathani ayi-190,000 / ngonyaka, ukulahleka kulindeleke ukuthi kube ngamathani angama-32,000, kodwa idivayisi yamanje ye-Cangzhou Dahua iyaqhubeka nokuma ngesikhathi sokuqalisa kabusha akwaziwa, abakhiqizi bamabhizinisi asekhaya ngomthelela wezomnotho wemboni wokwehla komthwalo (i-Changchun Chemical, i-Shanghai Sinopec Mitsui, i-Nantong Xingchen, njll.), ukulungiswa kabusha kulindeleke ukuthi kube yi-69,200. amathani, okunyuke ngo-29.8% ngekota yokuqala.

Ukusetshenziswa kwamandla embonini: Ukukhiqizwa kwemboni yasekhaya kulindeleke ukuthi kufinyelele amathani angama-867,700 ngekota yesibili, ukwehla kancane ngo-0.30% uma kuqhathaniswa nekota yokuqala, okukhuphuke ngo-54.12% uma kuqhathaniswa no-2022. 2022 engxenyeni yesibili yekota yokuqala ka-2023 i-bisphenol yasekhaya Umthamo omusha wokukhiqiza, umthelela wemakethe ebuthakathaka engxenyeni yokuqala yalo nyaka, amanye amabhizinisi ukunciphisa ukukhiqizwa nokunciphisa ukusebenza komthwalo, isilinganiso sokusebenzisa amandla embonini kulindeleke ukuthi sifinyelele ku-73.78% kwikota yesibili. , ukukhuphuka konyaka nonyaka ngama-29.8%.Izofinyelela ku-73.78%, yehle ngamaphesenti angu-4.93 ukusuka kwikota edlule, yehle ngamaphesenti angu-2 unyaka nonyaka.

2.1.2 Isibikezelo sengqikithi yokungenisa

Ukungeniswa kwemboni yase-China A kulindeleke ukuthi kube nenkontileka kakhulu ngekota yesibili, kodwa kuseyinsalela ethenga kwamanye amazwe, ikakhulukazi ingxenye yasekhaya yohwebo olungenayo lokucutshungulwa isekhona, kanye nabanye abakhiqizi inani elincane lokungeniswa okujwayelekile kohwebo, isamba sengqikithi yokuthekelisa. kulindeleke ukuthi ifinyelele kumathani angama-49,100.

2. 1.3 Isibikezelo sokusetshenziswa kwe-downstream

Ngekota yesibili, ukusetshenziswa komkhiqizo we-A e-China kulindeleke ukuthi kufinyelele kumathani angama-870,800, kukhuphuke ku-3.12% YoY kanye no-28.54% YoY.Lokhu kungenxa yokuthi: ngakolunye uhlangothi, kukhona amadivaysi amasha ahlelelwe ukuthi asetshenziswe e-downstream epoxy resin, ehambisana nokunciphisa ukukhiqizwa kwemboni kanye nokunciphisa umthwalo kwikota yokuqala ukuya ku-inventory, ukukhiqizwa kulindeleke ukuthi kukhule ingxenye yesibili;ngakolunye uhlangothi, ukusebenza kwemishini yemboni ye-PC kuzinzile uma kuqhathaniswa, lapho izitshalo ngazinye zima ukuze zilungiswe, zinciphise umthwalo futhi abanye abakhiqizi bakhulise umthwalo ngokuhlanganyela, futhi ukukhiqizwa kwekota yesibili kulindeleke ukuthi kukhule cishe ngo-2% YoY uma kuqhathaniswa ne ikota yokuqala.

2.2 Isitayela sentengo yomkhiqizo wekota yesibili ekhuphukayo kanye nomthelela esibikezelweni somkhiqizo

Kwikota yesibili, inani lamayunithi asekhaya e-phenol acetone ahlelelwe ukuthi ame ukuze alungiswe, lapho amayunithi amasha ahlelelwe ukuthi asebenze, ukuvikela ukuhlinzekwa okuphelele kukhuphuke kancane uma kuqhathaniswa nekota yokuqala.Kodwa njengoba i-bisphenol A esezansi nomfula kanye nezinye ezansi nomfula nazo zinezinhlelo zokunakekela noma zokunciphisa umthwalo, kuyilapho kucatshangelwa amanani kawoyela aqinile uma kuqhathaniswa, i-propylene imboni yezinqubo eziningi ilahlekelwa indawo ephansi yemakethe ilinganiselwe, kanye nezinguquko ezidingweni zetheminali ezansi nomfula, isilinganiso esilinganiselwe. i-phenol acetone amanani aqinile, amanani e-phenol kulindeleke ukuthi ahluke ku-7500-8300 yuan / ton, amanani e-acetone asukela ku-5800-6100 yuan / ton;ukusekelwa kwezindleko ze-bisphenol A kusekhona.

2.3 Inhlolovo yokucabanga yemakethe yekota yesibili

Ekoteni yesibili, i-Bisphenol A imishini emisha ayitholakali, amasethi amabili emishini yasekhaya ehlelelwe ukulungiswa, abanye abakhiqizi ngokuhlinzekwa kwemakethe kanye nesidingo kanye nomnotho ompofu womthelela wokunciphisa ukukhiqizwa komthwalo noma ukuqhubeka, ngesikhathi sokuphakelwa kanye nebhalansi yesidingo. I-Bisphenol A kulindeleke ukuthi ibe ngcono ngekota yokuqala, kodwa ukunikezwa sekukonke kusanele, iningi lemakethe kulindeleke ukuthi libe yi-Bisphenol A ezungeze umugqa wezindleko zehle futhi zehle amathuba okuguquguquka, iningi lenhloso “yokubona ukusebenza okuqaphile. “.

2.4 Isibikezelo sentengo yomkhiqizo wekota yesibili

Kwikota yesibili, intengo yemakethe ye-bisphenol A kulindeleke ukuthi iguqe phakathi kuka-9000-9800 yuan/ton.Ngasohlangothini lokuhlinzekwa kwempahla, ukunikezwa kulindeleke ukuthi kwehliswe kancane uma kuqhathaniswa nekota yokuqala ngenxa yomthelela wokunakekelwa kwezitshalo kanye nengxenye yomthwalo wokunciphisa ukukhiqizwa, ukungqubuzana phakathi kokunikezwa nokufunwa emakethe kunekota yokugcina noma kalula, intengo. umehluko phakathi kwezifunda kulindeleke ukuba ube mncane;ngasohlangothini lwesidingo, i-epoxy resin yidivayisi entsha esetshenziswa futhi isanda kukhulula umthelela womkhiqizo wonke kulindeleke ukuthi ukhule;Ukukhiqizwa kwe-PC engxenyeni yesibili kulindeleke ukuthi kukhuphuke kancane, amalahle ayisicaba Shenma, idivayisi ye-Hainan Huasheng kulindeleke ukuthi iqale kabusha ukukhiqiza noma ikhulise umthwalo, abanye abakhiqizi ngabanye banezinhlelo zokuhlola, kanye nokucabangela umthelela wemakethe elandelayo akubandakanyi amathuba okunciphisa umthwalo;izindleko, i-phenol ketone ngezindleko zokugcinwa endaweni eyodwa kwedivayisi kanye nomthelela oyisisekelo wokuhlinzekwa nokufunwa, amanani aqinile ngokuqhathaniswa, ukusekelwa kwe-bisphenol A kusekhona;ingqondo yemakethe, kanye nekota yesibili yenguquko yesigcinalwazi, isimo sengqondo semakethe sisekhona.Kafushane, izici zokuhlinzeka nezidingo kanye nezindleko, i-bisphenol A ilindeleke ukuthi isebenze ebangeni elincane lokuguquguquka.