1.1 Ukuhlaziywa kwethrendi yemakethe ye-BPA yekota yokuqala

Ngekota yokuqala ka-2023, inani elimaphakathi le-bisphenol A emakethe yaseMpumalanga China lalingu-9,788 yuan / ton, -21.68% YoY, -44.72% YoY. 2023 Januwari-Februwari i-bisphenol A iyashintshashintsha eduze komugqa wezindleko ku-9,600-10,300 yuan / ton. Ekuqaleni kukaJanuwari, kanye nomkhathi woNyaka Omusha WaseShayina, futhi abanye abakhiqizi ngaphambi komkhosi ukuvumela umugqa wenzuzo, isikhungo semakethe sokudonsela phansi sawela ku-9,650 yuan / ton. Emasontweni amabili ngaphambi nangemva koMkhosi Wasentwasahlobo, umfula ugcwalisa izikhundla, futhi ngemva komkhosi amanani kawoyela akhuphuka akhuphula ukuxhumana kwemboni, i-bisphenol A abakhiqizi abakhulu bathembisa ukukhuphuka, imakethe yaphakama, izingxoxo ezivamile zase-East China zafinyelela ku-10200-10300 yuan / ton, February main instream digestion contract kanye nenani eliphansi lentengo ye-0ctuyu. Ukungena ngoMashi, ukubuyiselwa kwesidingo esibulalayo kwakuhamba kancane, futhi ukuphikisana phakathi kokunikezwa kanye nesidingo emakethe kwaqokonyiswa, kuhambisana nezenzakalo zengozi yezezimali eYurophu nasemabhange ase-United States, okuholele ekwehleni kwamanani kawoyela ukucindezela isimo sengqondo semakethe, isimo esifushane semakethe sasisobala. Ukubuyiselwa kwetheminali ye-downstream kuncane kunalokho obekulindelwe, ukukhuphuka kwe-epoxy resin kuqala bese kuwela ku-inventory, isikhungo se-PC sokudonsela phansi sithambe, ukunikezwa kwemakethe kanye nokungqubuzana kwesidingo kuqokonyiswe, okuhambisana nezigameko zobungozi zezezimali eziholele emananini kawoyela kanye nokubuyiswa kwamakhemikhali ayisisekelo ukucindezela imizwa yemakethe, i-bisphenol A kanye nokuvumelanisa kwemakethe ephansi njengoba ukwehla kwentengo yemakethe yehle ngo-March 3, kuya ku-9300 yuan / ton.

1.2 Ibhalansi yokuhlinzeka nge-bisphenol A kanye nesidingo ngekota yokuqala

Ngekota yokuqala ka-2023, isimo sokugcwala ngokweqile kwe-bisphenol A yaseChina sisobala. Ngaleso sikhathi, i-Wanhua Chemical Phase II kanye ne-Guangxi Huayi BPA yahlanganisa amathani angu-440,000/ngonyaka wamayunithi amasha aqala ukusebenza, futhi umsebenzi usuwonke wawuzinzile, okwandisa ukunikezwa kwemakethe. I-Downstream epoxy resin ngokuyisisekelo iyafana nesikhathi esifanayo ngonyaka odlule, i-PC kanye namandla amasha okukhiqiza kanye nezinga lokuqalisa imboni, ukukhula kokusetshenziswa cishe okungama-30%, kodwa izinga lokukhula lokuhlinzeka liphezulu kunezinga lokukhula kwesidingo, igebe lokunikezwa kwe-bisphenol A kanye nesidingo linwetshiwe lafinyelela kumathani ayi-131,000 kwikota yokuqala.

1.3 Ingxenye yesine yeshidi ledatha yokwenziwa kochungechunge lwemboni

Ikota ye-bisphenol A ehlobene namathebula edatha ochungechunge lomkhakha okhuphuka nomfula ophansi

2.Isibikezelo semboni ye-Bisphenol A engxenyeni yesibili

2.1 Isibikezelo sokuhlinzekwa komkhiqizo nesidingo sekota yesibili

2.1.1 Isibikezelo sokukhiqiza

Umthamo omusha: engxenyeni yesibili, idivayisi yasekhaya ye-bisphenol A ayicaci kahle izinhlelo ezintsha zokukhiqiza. Ethintwe ubuthakathaka bemakethe kanye nenzuzo yemboni etholwe ngokuphawulekayo, amanye amathuluzi amasha aqala ukusebenza kunalokho obekulindelwe ukubambezeleka, ekupheleni kwekota yesibili, inani lokukhiqiza lasekhaya eliphelele lamathani angu-4,265,000 / ngonyaka.

Ukulahleka kwedivayisi: ingxenye yesibili ye-bisphenol yasekhaya Ukulungiswa okuphakathi kwedivayisi, ngokusho kocwaningo lweLonzhong, ikota yesibili yokulungiswa okujwayelekile kwezinkampani ezimbili, umthamo wokulungisa amathani ayi-190,000 / ngonyaka, ukulahleka kulindeleke ukuthi kube amathani angama-32,000, kepha umshini wamanje weCangzhou Dahua uyaqhubeka nokuma, umthelela ongaziwa womkhiqizi wezomnotho ongaziwa ngesikhathi sokuqalisa kabusha kwezomnotho. (Changchun Chemical, Shanghai Sinopec Mitsui, Nantong Xingchen, njll.), ukulungisa Ukulahlekelwa kulindeleke ukuba kube amathani angu-69,200, okuwukukhuphuka ngo-29.8% ngekota yokuqala.

Ukusetshenziswa kwamandla embonini: Ukukhiqizwa kwemboni yasekhaya kulindeleke ukuthi kufinyelele amathani angu-867,700 ngekota yesibili, ukwehla kancane ngo-0.30% uma kuqhathaniswa nekota yokuqala, okukhuphuke ngo-54.12% uma kuqhathaniswa no-2022. 2022 ingxenye yesibili yekota yokuqala ka-2023 i-bisphenol yasekhaya I-bisphenol yasekhaya entsha. ukusebenza komthwalo, isilinganiso sesilinganiso sokusebenzisa amandla embonini kulindeleke ukuthi sifinyelele ku-73.78% ngekota yesibili, okuwukukhula konyaka nonyaka ngama-29.8%. Izofinyelela ku-73.78%, yehle ngamaphesenti angu-4.93 ukusuka kwikota edlule, yehle ngamaphesenti angu-2 unyaka nonyaka.

2.1.2 Isibikezelo sengqikithi yokungenisa

Ukungeniswa kwemboni yase-China A kulindeleke ukuthi kube nenkontileka kakhulu ngekota yesibili, kodwa kuseyinsalela ethenga kwamanye amazwe, ikakhulukazi ingxenye yasekhaya yokuhweba okungenayo yokucubungula isekhona, kanye nabanye abakhiqizi inani elincane lokungeniswa kohwebo olujwayelekile, ivolumu yokuthekelisa inetha kulindeleke ukuthi ifinyelele amathani angama-49,100.

2. 1.3 Isibikezelo sokusetshenziswa kwe-downstream

Ngekota yesibili, ukusetshenziswa komkhiqizo we-A e-China kulindeleke ukuthi kufinyelele kumathani angama-870,800, kukhuphuke ku-3.12% YoY kanye no-28.54% YoY. Lokhu ikakhulukazi ngoba: ngakolunye uhlangothi, kukhona amadivaysi amasha ahlelelwe ukufakwa ekusebenzeni kwe-downstream epoxy resin, kuhambisana nokunciphisa ukukhiqizwa kwemboni kanye nokunciphisa umthwalo kwikota yokuqala ukuya ku-inventory, ukukhiqizwa kulindeleke ukuthi kukhule engxenyeni yesibili; ngakolunye uhlangothi, ukusebenza kwemishini yemboni ye-PC kuzinzile uma kuqhathaniswa, lapho izitshalo ngazinye zima ukuze zilungiswe, zincishiswe umthwalo futhi abanye abakhiqizi bakhulise umthwalo ngokuhlanganyela, futhi ukukhiqizwa kwekota yesibili kulindeleke ukuthi kukhule cishe ngo-2% YoY uma kuqhathaniswa nekota yokuqala.

2.2 Isitayela sentengo yomkhiqizo wekota yesibili ekhuphukayo kanye nomthelela esibikezelweni somkhiqizo

Kwikota yesibili, inani lamayunithi asekhaya e-phenol acetone ahlelelwe ukuthi ame ukuze alungiswe, lapho amayunithi amasha ahlelelwe ukuthi asebenze, ukuvikela ukuhlinzekwa okuphelele kukhuphuke kancane uma kuqhathaniswa nekota yokuqala. Kodwa njengoba i-bisphenol A engezansi kanye nezinye ezansi nomfula nazo zinezinhlelo zokulungisa noma zokunciphisa umthwalo, kuyilapho kucatshangelwa amanani kawoyela aqinile, i-propylene multi-process imboni yokulahlekelwa indawo ephansi yemakethe ilinganiselwe, kanye nezinguquko ekufuneni ukuphela komfula, amanani entengo ye-phenol acetone aqinile ngokuqhathaniswa, amanani e-phenol kulindeleke ukuthi abe nenani lama-7500000-acetonean / 300000-8 5800-6100 yuan / ton; ukusekelwa kwezindleko ze-bisphenol A kusekhona.

2.3 Inhlolovo yokucabanga yemakethe yekota yesibili

Kwikota yesibili, i-Bisphenol A amadivayisi amasha awatholakali, amasethi amabili emishini yasekhaya ehlelelwe ukugcinwa, abanye abakhiqizi ngokuhlinzekwa kwemakethe kanye nesidingo kanye nomnotho ompofu womthelela wokunciphisa ukukhiqizwa noma ukuqhubeka, ngesikhathi sokuhlinzekwa kanye nebhalansi yesidingo se-Bisphenol A kulindeleke ukuthi ibe ngcono ngekota yokuqala, kodwa ukunikezwa okuphelele kusanele, iningi lemakethe kulindeleke ukuthi likhuphuke nge-Bisphenol A likhuphuke futhi lihle kakhulu "bona ukusebenza okuqaphile".

2.4 Isibikezelo sentengo yomkhiqizo wekota yesibili

Kwikota yesibili, intengo yemakethe ye-bisphenol A kulindeleke ukuthi iguqe phakathi kuka-9000-9800 yuan/ton. Ohlangothini lokuhlinzekwa kwempahla, ukunikezwa kulindeleke ukuthi kwehliswe kancane uma kuqhathaniswa nekota yokuqala ngenxa yomthelela wokunakekelwa kwezitshalo kanye nengxenye yomthwalo wokunciphisa ukukhiqizwa, ukungqubuzana phakathi kokuhlinzekwa nokufunwa emakethe kunekota yokugcina noma ukukhululeka, umehluko wamanani phakathi kwezifunda kulindeleke ukuba ube mncane; ngasohlangothini lwesidingo, i-epoxy resin yidivayisi entsha esetshenziswa futhi isanda kukhulula umthelela womkhiqizo wonke kulindeleke ukuthi ukhule; Ukukhiqizwa kwe-PC engxenyeni yesibili kulindeleke ukuthi kukhuphuke kancane, i-flat coal Shenma, idivayisi ye-Hainan Huasheng kulindeleke ukuthi iqale kabusha ukukhiqiza noma ikhulise umthwalo, abanye abakhiqizi ngabanye banezinhlelo zokuhlola, kanye nokucabangela umthelela wemakethe elandelayo akubandakanyi amathuba okunciphisa umthwalo; izindleko, i-phenol ketone ngezindleko zokugcinwa endaweni eyodwa kwedivayisi kanye nomthelela oyisisekelo wokuhlinzekwa nokufunwa, amanani aqinile ngokuqhathaniswa, ukusekelwa kwe-bisphenol A kusekhona; ingqondo yemakethe, kanye nekota yesibili yenguquko yesigcinalwazi, isimo sengqondo semakethe sisekhona. Kafushane, izici zokuhlinzeka nezidingo kanye nezindleko, i-bisphenol A ilindeleke ukuthi isebenze ebangeni elincane lokuguquguquka.