1.1 First quarter BPA market trend analysis

In the first quarter of 2023, the average price of bisphenol A in East China market was 9,788 yuan / ton, -21.68% YoY, -44.72% YoY. 2023 January-February bisphenol A fluctuates around the cost line at 9,600-10,300 yuan / ton. In early January, along with the Chinese New Year atmosphere, and some manufacturers before the festival to let the profit row, the market center of gravity fell to 9,650 yuan / ton. Two weeks before and after the Spring Festival, the downstream to fill positions, and after the festival oil prices upward drive the industry chain linkage up, bisphenol A main manufacturers offer pull up, the market rose, East China mainstream negotiations pulled up to 10200-10300 yuan / ton, February main downstream digestion contract and inventory market around the price of 10,000 yuan narrow fluctuations. Entering March, the terminal demand recovery was slow, and the contradiction between supply and demand in the market was highlighted, coupled with the financial risk events in Europe and the United States banks, which led to the downside of oil prices to suppress the market mentality, the market short atmosphere was obvious. Downstream terminal recovery is less than expected, epoxy resin load first rise and then fall to inventory, PC center of gravity softened, the market supply and demand contradictions highlighted, coupled with the peripheral financial risk events led to oil prices and basic chemicals retracement to suppress market sentiment, bisphenol A and downstream market synchronization downward, as of March 31, bisphenol A market prices all the way down to 9300 yuan / ton.

1.2 Bisphenol A supply and demand balance in the first quarter

In the first quarter of 2023, China’s bisphenol A oversupply situation is obvious. During the period, Wanhua Chemical Phase II and Guangxi Huayi BPA combined 440,000 tons/year of new units were put into operation, and the overall operation was stable, which increased the market supply. Downstream epoxy resin is basically the same as the same period last year, PC along with new production capacity and industry start-up rate, the consumption growth of nearly 30%, but the overall supply growth rate is higher than the demand growth rate, bisphenol A supply and demand gap widened to 131,000 tons in the first quarter.

1.3 A quarter of the industry chain conduction data sheet

A quarter of bisphenol A upstream and downstream industry chain related data tables

2.Bisphenol A industry forecast in the second quarter

2.1 Second quarter product supply and demand forecast

2.1.1 Production forecast

New capacity: in the second quarter, the domestic bisphenol A device is not clear new production plans. Affected by this year’s weak market and industry profits contracted significantly, some of the new devices put into operation than expected delayed, as of the end of the second quarter, the total domestic production capacity of 4,265,000 tons / year.

Device loss: the second quarter of the domestic bisphenol A device centralized overhaul, according to Lonzhong research, the second quarter of the regular overhaul of two companies, overhaul capacity of 190,000 tons / year, the loss is expected to be around 32,000 tons, but the current Cangzhou Dahua device continues to stop in the restart time is unknown, the domestic enterprise manufacturers by the industry’s economic impact of load drop (Changchun Chemical, Shanghai Sinopec Mitsui, Nantong Xingchen, etc.), overhaul The loss is expected to be 69,200 tons, an increase of 29.8% over the first quarter.

Industry capacity utilization: domestic A industry output is expected to reach 867,700 tons in the second quarter, a slight decrease of 0.30% compared with the first quarter, an increase of 54.12% compared with 2022. 2022 the second half of the first quarter of 2023 domestic bisphenol A new production capacity, the impact of the weak market in the first quarter of this year, some enterprises to cut production and reduce the load operation, the average capacity utilization rate of the industry is expected to reach 73.78% in the second quarter, a year-on-year increase of 29.8%. Will reach 73.78%, down 4.93 percentage points from the previous quarter, down 2 percentage points year-on-year.

2.1.2 Net import forecast

China A industry imports are expected to contract significantly in the second quarter, but it is still a net importer, mainly domestic part of the incoming processing trade still exists, as well as some manufacturers a small amount of general trade imports, the net export volume is expected to reach 49,100 tons.

2. 1.3 Downstream consumption forecast

In the second quarter, the consumption of A products in China is expected to reach 870,800 tons, up 3.12% YoY and 28.54% YoY. This is mainly because: on the one hand, there are new devices planned to be put into operation for downstream epoxy resin, coupled with the industry’s production reduction and load reduction in the first quarter to go to inventory, the production is expected to grow in the second quarter; on the other hand, the PC industry’s device operation is relatively stable, during which individual plants stop for maintenance, load reduction and some manufacturers raise load coexist, and the production in the second quarter is expected to grow by about 2% YoY compared with the first quarter.

2.2 Second quarter upstream product price trend and impact on the product forecast

In the second quarter, a number of domestic phenol acetone units are scheduled to stop for maintenance, during which new units are also scheduled to come on line, hedging the overall supply slightly increased compared to the first quarter. But as the downstream bisphenol A and other downstream also have maintenance or load reduction plans, while taking into account the relatively firm oil prices, propylene multi-process industry losses market downside space is limited, as well as changes in downstream terminal demand, the estimated phenol acetone prices are relatively firm, phenol prices are expected to range 7500-8300 yuan / ton, acetone prices range 5800-6100 yuan / ton; cost support for bisphenol A still exists.

2.3 Second quarter market mentality survey

In the second quarter, Bisphenol A new devices are not available, two sets of domestic devices planned maintenance, other manufacturers by the market supply and demand and poor economics of the impact of production reduction load or continue, during the overall supply and demand balance of Bisphenol A is expected to improve over the first quarter, but the overall supply is still sufficient, most of the market is expected to Bisphenol A around the cost line up and down the probability of fluctuations, most of the intention to “see more cautious operation “.

2.4 Second quarter product price forecast

In the second quarter, the market price of bisphenol A is expected to fluctuate between 9000-9800 yuan / ton. On the supply side, the supply is expected to be slightly reduced compared with the first quarter due to the impact of plant maintenance and part of the production reduction load, the contradiction between supply and demand in the market than last quarter or ease, the price difference between regions is expected to narrow; on the demand side, epoxy resin by the new device put into operation and just release the impact of the overall production is expected to increase; PC production in the second quarter is expected to increase slightly, flat coal Shenma, Hainan Huasheng device is expected to resume production or raise the load, other individual manufacturers have Inspection plans, as well as taking into account the impact of the subsequent market does not exclude the possibility of load reduction; cost, phenol ketone by the cost of centralized maintenance of the device and the basic impact of supply and demand, prices are relatively firm, the support of bisphenol A still exists; market mentality, along with the second quarter of the buffer transition, the market mentality is still available. In summary, the supply and demand and cost factors, bisphenol A is expected to run in a narrow range of fluctuations.