Kusukela ekupheleni kukaJuni, intengo ye-styrene iye yaqhubeka ikhuphuka cishe nge-940 yuan/ton, ishintsha ukwehla okuqhubekayo kwekota yesibili, okuphoqa abangaphakathi embonini abafushane abathengisa i-styrene ukunciphisa izikhundla zabo.Ingabe ukukhula kokunikezwayo kuzokwehla ngaphansi kokulindelwe futhi ngo-Agasti?Ukuthi isidingo se-Jinjiu singakhululwa kusengaphambili yisizathu esiyinhloko sokunquma ukuthi intengo ye-styrene ingaqhubeka nokuba namandla.
Kunezizathu ezintathu eziyinhloko zokwenyuka kwamanani e-styrene ngoJulayi: okokuqala, ukunyuka okuqhubekayo kwamanani kawoyela wamazwe ngamazwe kuye kwaholela ekuthuthukisweni komqondo wezomnotho omkhulu;Okwesibili, ukukhula kokunikezwayo kuphansi kunalokho obekulindelwe, okuholela ekwehleni kokukhiqizwa kwe-styrene, ukubambezeleka kokuqaliswa kabusha kwemishini yokulungisa, nokuvalwa okungahleliwe kwemishini yokukhiqiza;Okwesithathu, isidingo sokuthunyelwa kwempahla kwamanye amazwe okungahleliwe sinyukile.
Amanani kawoyela emhlabeni wonke ayaqhubeka nokukhuphuka, futhi isimo somnotho omkhulu siyathuthuka
NgoJulayi walo nyaka, amanani entengo kawoyela omhlaba wonke aqala ukukhuphuka, nokwenyuka okukhulu ezinsukwini eziyishumi zokuqala bese eguquguquka ngamazinga aphezulu.Izizathu zokwenyuka kwamanani entengo kawoyela emhlabeni wonke zihlanganisa: 1. I-Saudi Arabia yanweba ngokuzithandela ukwehla kokukhiqizwa kwayo futhi yathumela isignali emakethe ukuze kunzinziswe imakethe kawoyela;2. I-CPI yedatha ye-inflation yase-US iphansi kunokulindelwe yimakethe, okuholela kudola laseMelika elibuthakathaka.Okulindelwe yimakethe kwe-Federal Reserve ukuthi ikhuphule amanani enzalo kulo nyaka kwehlile, futhi kulindeleke ukuthi iqhubeke nokukhuphula amanani enzalo ngoJulayi, kodwa ingase ime kancane ngoSepthemba.Ngokumelene nesizinda sokwehla kwezinga lenzalo kanye nedola laseMelika elibuthaka, umdlandla wobungozi emakethe yezimpahla usuphinde wanda, futhi uwoyela ongahluziwe uyaqhubeka nokukhuphuka.Ukwenyuka kwamanani kawoyela emhlabeni wonke kukhuphule intengo ye-benzene emsulwa.Nakuba ukukhuphuka kwezintengo ze-styrene ngoJulayi akuzange kuqhutshwe i-benzene emsulwa, akuzange kwehlise ukukhuphuka kwezintengo ze-styrene.Kusuka kumfanekiso woku-1, kungabonakala ukuthi ukukhuphuka kwe-benzene okuhlanzekile akukuhle njengalokho kwe-styrene, futhi inzuzo ye-styrene iyaqhubeka nokuba ngcono.
Ngaphezu kwalokho, umkhathi omkhulu nawo ushintshile kule nyanga, ngokukhishwa okuzayo kwemibhalo efanele ukuze kuthuthukiswe imizwa yemakethe esetshenziswayo.Imakethe kulindeleke ukuthi ibe nezinqubomgomo ezifanele eNgqungqutheleni Yezomnotho Ye-Central Politburo ngoJulayi, futhi ukusebenza kuqaphile.
Ukukhula kokunikezwa kwe-styrene kuphansi kunalokho obekulindelwe, futhi i-port inventory yehlile esikhundleni sokukhula
Lapho ibhalansi yokuhlinzeka kanye nesidingo yangoJulayi ibikezelwa ngoJuni, kulindeleke ukuthi ukukhiqizwa kwasekhaya ngoJulayi kuzoba cishe amathani ayizigidi eziyi-1.38, futhi isamba senhlalo esihlanganisiwe sizoba amathani angaba ngu-50000.Kodwa-ke, izinguquko ezingahleliwe zibangele ukwanda okuphansi kunokulindelekile ekukhiqizweni kwe-styrene, futhi esikhundleni sokwanda kwempahla yechweba eliyinhloko, kwehla.
1. Ethintwa izici ezihlosiwe, amanani entengo yezinto ezixutshwayo ezihlobene ne-toluene nexylene akhuphuke ngokushesha, ikakhulukazi uwoyela we-alkylated nama-hydrocarbons anuka kamnandi, akhuthaze ukwanda kwesidingo sasekhaya sokuxutshwa kwe-toluene nexylene, okubangele ukwanda okunamandla amanani.Ngakho-ke, inani le-ethylbenzene liye lenyuka ngokufanayo.Emabhizinisini okukhiqiza i-styrene, ukusebenza kahle kokukhiqiza kwe-ethylbenzene ngaphandle kwe-dehydrogenation kungcono kune-dehydrogenation isivuno se-styrene, okuholela ekunciphiseni kokukhiqizwa kwe-styrene.Kuyaqondakala ukuthi izindleko ze-dehydrogenation cishe zi-400-500 yuan/ton.Uma umehluko wentengo phakathi kwe-styrene ne-ethylbenzene ungaphezu kuka-400-500 yuan/ton, ukukhiqizwa kwe-styrene kuba ngcono, futhi ngokuphambene nalokho.NgoJulayi, ngenxa yokuncipha kokukhiqizwa kwe-ethylbenzene, ukukhiqizwa kwe-styrene kwakungamathani angaba ngu-80-90000, okuyisizathu esisodwa sokuthi kungani i-inventory yechweba eyinhloko ayizange ikhule.
2. Ukunakekelwa kwamayunithi e-styrene kugxile kakhulu kusukela ngoMeyi kuya kuJuni.Uhlelo lokuqala bekumele luqale kabusha ngoJulayi, iningi lalo ligxile maphakathi noJulayi.Kodwa-ke, ngenxa yezizathu ezithile zenhloso, izisetshenziswa eziningi zibambezelekile ukuqalisa kabusha;Umthwalo wokushayela wedivayisi entsha uphansi kunalokho obekulindelwe, futhi umthwalo uhlala usezingeni eliphakathi ukuya kweliphansi.Ngaphezu kwalokho, izitshalo ze-styrene ezifana ne-Tianjin Dagu kanye ne-Hainan Refining ne-Chemical nazo zinokuvalwa okungahleliwe, okubangela ukulahlekelwa ekukhiqizweni kwasekhaya.
Imishini yaphesheya kwezilwandle iyavaleka, okuholela ekwenyukeni kwesidingo sokuthekelisa esihleliwe saseChina se-styrene
Maphakathi nale nyanga, isitshalo se-styrene e-United States sasihlelwe ukuthi siyeke ukusebenza, kuyilapho ukugcinwa kwesitshalo eYurophu kwakuhlelwe.Amanani akhuphuka ngokushesha, iwindi le-arbitrage lavuleka, futhi isidingo se-arbitrage sakhula.Abahwebi babambe iqhaza ngenkuthalo ezingxoxweni, futhi kwase kukhona ukuthengiselana kwamanye amazwe.Emasontweni amabili edlule, isamba semali ethengiwe yokuthekelisa kwamanye amazwe ibe ngamathani angama-29000, afakwe kakhulu ngo-Agasti, ikakhulukazi eNingizimu Korea.Nakuba izimpahla zaseShayina zingazange zilethwe ngokuqondile eYurophu, ngemva kokulungiswa kwezinto, ukuthunyelwa kwezimpahla ngokungaqondile kwagcwalisa igebe ekuqondeni kwaseYurophu, futhi kwaqashelwa ukuthi ukuthengiselana kungaqhubeka yini esikhathini esizayo.Njengamanje, kuyaqondakala ukuthi ukukhiqizwa kwamadivayisi e-United States kuzonqanyulwa noma kuzobuya ngasekupheleni kukaJulayi angasekuqaleni kuka-Agasti, kuyilapho cishe amathani ayizigidi ezingu-2 emishini e-Europe azonqanyulwa ezigabeni zakamuva.Uma beqhubeka nokungenisa bevela e-China, banganciphisa kakhulu ukukhula kokukhiqizwa kwasekhaya.
Isimo esisezansi nomfula asinathemba, kodwa asikafinyeleli ezingeni lempendulo elibi
Njengamanje, ngaphezu kokugxila ekuthunyelweni kwamanye amazwe, imboni yemakethe iphinde ikholelwe ukuthi impendulo engemihle evela ekudingeni okuphansi komfula iwukhiye wokunquma intengo ephezulu ye-styrene.Izinto ezintathu ezibalulekile ekunqumeni ukuthi impendulo engemihle iyakuthinta ukuvalwa kwebhizinisi/ukunciphisa umthwalo yilezi: 1. ukuthi inzuzo ephansi iyalahleka yini;2. Ingabe akhona ama-oda ezansi nomfula;3. Ingabe i-inventory engezansi iphezulu.Njengamanje, inzuzo ephansi ye-EPS/PS ilahlekelwe yimali, kodwa ukulahlekelwa eminyakeni emibili edlule kusamukeleka, futhi imboni ye-ABS isenayo inzuzo.Njengamanje, uhlu lwe-PS lusezingeni eliphansi futhi ama-oda asamukelekile;Ukukhula kwe-inventory ye-EPS kuhamba kancane, ezinye izinkampani zinempahla ephezulu kanye nama-oda abuthakathaka.Kafushane, nakuba isimo esingezansi singesona ithemba, asikakafinyeleli ezingeni lempendulo engemihle.
Kuyaqondakala ukuthi amanye amatheminali asalindele okuhle ku-Double Eleven kanye ne-Double Twelve, futhi uhlelo lokuhlela ukukhiqizwa kwamafekthri ezinto zasendlini ngo-September kulindeleke ukuba lukhuphuke.Ngakho-ke, kusenezintengo eziqinile ngaphansi kokugcwalisa okulindelekile ngasekupheleni kuka-Agasti.Kunezimo ezimbili:
1. Uma i-styrene iphinda ibopha ngaphambi kwamaphakathi no-Agasti, kukhona okulindelekile kokuphinda kukhuphuke amanani ekupheleni kwenyanga;
2. Uma i-styrene ingabuyeli ngaphambi kwamaphakathi no-Agasti futhi iqhubeka iqina, ukugcinwa kabusha kwetheminali kungase kubambezeleke, futhi amanani angase abe buthaka ekupheleni kwenyanga.
Isikhathi sokuthumela: Jul-25-2023
