1,Ukubuka konke kokukhiqizwa kwemakethe ye-octanol kanye nobudlelwano bezidingo zokuhlinzeka ngo-2023

Ngo-2023, kuthonywe izici ezahlukahlukene, ii-octanolimboni ihlangabezane nokwehla kokukhiqizwa kanye nokwanda kwegebe lesidingo sokuhlinzeka.Ukwenzeka njalo kwemishini yokupaka nokunakekela kuholele ekwenyukeni okungekuhle kwaminyaka yonke kokukhiqizwa kwasekhaya, okuyinto engavamile ukwenzeka eminyakeni eminingi.Isamba esilinganiselwe sokukhiqiza sonyaka singamathani ayizigidi ezingu-2.3992, ukwehla ngamathani angu-78600 kusukela ngo-2022. Izinga lokusetshenziswa kwamandla okukhiqiza nalo lehlile, lisuka ngaphezu kuka-100% ngo-2022 laya ku-95.09%.

Ngokombono wamandla okukhiqiza, abalwe ngokusekelwe kumthamo wokuklama wamathani ayizigidi ezingu-2.523, umthamo wangempela wokukhiqiza ungaphezu kwale nombolo.Kodwa-ke, ukwanda kwezindawo ezintsha zokukhiqiza kuholele ekwandeni kwesisekelo samandla okukhiqiza, kanti izikhungo ezintsha ezifana neZibo Nuo Ao ziqale ukukhiqiza kuphela ekupheleni konyaka, nokukhululwa komthamo wokukhiqiza eBaichuan, eNingxia kuhlehlisiwe. kuze kube sekuqaleni kuka-2024. Lokhu kuholele ekwehleni kwezinga lomthwalo wokusebenza wemboni ye-octanol ngo-2023 kanye nokulahlekelwa ekukhiqizeni.

2,Ukuhlaziywa okujulile kobudlelwane bokunikezwayo nesidingo se-octanol

1. Ukwehla kokukhiqiza kanye negebe lesidingo sokuhlinzeka: Nakuba ukukhiqizwa kwezikhungo ezintsha kubambezelekile futhi ezinye izakhiwo ezivuselelwe zingakaqalwa njengoba bekuhleliwe, ukukhula okuqhubekayo kwesidingo esiphansi somfula kuqale ukuvela ngemuva kwekota yesine, okuhlinzeka ukwesekwa imakethe ye-octanol.Kusukela ngoJulayi kuya kuSepthemba, ngenxa yokulungiswa kwendawo eyodwa, ukunikezwa kwehle kakhulu, kanti ukwanda kwesidingo kuholele ekwenyukeni kwezinga elibi legebe lesidingo sokuhlinzeka.

2.Ukuhlaziywa kwesidingo esikhulu somfula: Ukuduma kwemakethe ye-plasticizer kuphinde kwakhuphuka, futhi isidingo sisonke sibonisa ukuthambekela okukhuphukayo.Kusukela ekuhlinzekweni nasekudingweni kwemikhiqizo emikhulu esezingeni eliphansi efana ne-DOP, i-DOTP, ne-isooctyl acrylate, kungabonakala ukuthi ukunikezwa kwe-DOP kukhula kakhulu, ngokunyuka okuphelele kokukhiqiza ngo-6%, okwenza umnikelo omkhulu ekukhuleni kwe-octanol. ukusetshenziswa.Ukukhiqizwa kwe-DOTP kwehle cishe ngo-2%, kodwa kukhona ukuguquguquka okuncane kukonke esidingweni sangempela sokusetshenziswa kwe-octanol.Ukukhiqizwa kwe-isooctyl acrylate kukhuphuke ngo-4%, okubuye kube nomthelela ekukhuleni kokusetshenziswa kwe-octanol.

3.Ukushintshashintsha kwezintengo zempahla eluhlaza: Ukunikezwa kwe-propylene kuyaqhubeka nokukhuphuka, kodwa intengo yayo yehle kakhulu, ikhulisa igebe ngentengo ye-octanol.Lokhu kunciphisa ingcindezi yezindleko embonini ye-octanol, kodwa futhi kukhombisa umehluko kumathrendi okusebenza akhuphuka nomfula.

3,Ukubukeka kwemakethe yesikhathi esizayo kanye nokungaqiniseki kwamandla amasha okukhiqiza

Umbono we-1.Supply side: Kulindeleke ukuthi ukukhululwa kwamandla amasha okukhiqiza kuzobhekana nokungaqiniseki ngo-2024. Kulindeleke ukuthi iningi lezikhungo zokwandisa i-Anqing Shuguang kanye nezindawo ezintsha ze-satellite petrochemical zingadinga ukukhululwa engxenyeni yesibili yonyaka. kuze kube sekupheleni konyaka.Imishini yokuvuselela ye-Shandong Jianlan ingase ibambezeleke kuze kube sekupheleni konyaka, okwenza kube nzima ukukhulula umthamo wokuhlinzeka nge-octanol engxenyeni yokuqala yonyaka.Ngenxa yezinto ezifana nokugcinwa kwentwasahlobo, kulindeleke ukuthi i-octanol iqhubeke nokusebenza ngamandla engxenyeni yokuqala ka-2024.

2.Ukukhulisa okulindelekile ohlangothini lwesidingo: Ngokombono omkhulu nowomjikelezo, isidingo esingaphansi komfula kulindeleke ukuthi sithuthukiswe ngokuzayo.Lokhu kuzophinde kuqinise iphethini yebhalansi yesidingo esiqinile se-octanol futhi kwandise amathuba okusebenza kwemakethe ezingeni eliphakathi neliphezulu.Kulindeleke ukuthi ukuthambekela kwemakethe ngo-2024 kuzokhombisa ukuthambekela okuphezulu ngaphambili nokuphansi ngemuva.Engxenyeni yesibili yonyaka, ngokukhishwa kwamandla amasha okukhiqiza emakethe kanye nokulindela ukwehla okujikelezayo kwesidingo esingaphansi komfula, uhlangothi lwamanani lungase lubhekane nokulungiswa okuthile.

3.Umthamo omningi wesikhathi esizayo kanye nokwehla kokugxila emakethe: Eminyakeni ezayo, ukukhiqizwa okuhleliwe kwamayunithi amaningi we-octanol kuzogxila kakhulu.Ngesikhathi esifanayo, ukwanda kwesidingo somfula kuhamba kancane, futhi isimo sensalela yemboni sizokhula.Kulindeleke ukuthi ukugxila kukonke kokusebenza kwe-octanol kuzokwehla ngokuzayo, futhi i-amplitude yemakethe ingase ibe mncane.

4.Umbono wentengo yempahla yomhlaba wonke: Kulindeleke ukuthi ukwehla kwezintengo zempahla emhlabeni wonke kwehle ngo-2024. Kungase kube nomjikelezo omusha wemakethe yezinkunzi zempahla, kodwa lo mzuliswano wezinkunzi ungase ube buthakathaka uma kuqhathaniswa.Uma kwenzeka izehlakalo ezingalindelekile phakathi nenqubo yokusimama komnotho, izintengo zempahla zingashintsha.

Sekukonke, imakethe ye-octanol ibhekene nezinselelo zokwehla kokukhiqiza kanye nokwandisa izikhala zesidingo sokuhlinzeka ngo-2023. Kodwa-ke, ukukhula okuqhubekayo kwesidingo esiphansi somfula kunikeze ukusekelwa kwemakethe.Uma ubheka phambili, kulindeleke ukuthi imakethe izoqhubeka nokugcina umkhuba oqinile wokusebenza, kodwa ingase ibhekane nengcindezi yokulungisa engxenyeni yesibili yonyaka.

Uma sibheka phambili ku-2024, inkambiso yomhlaba wonke yokwehla kwentengo yempahla ingase yehle, futhi amanani ngokuvamile azobonisa ukuthambekela okukhuphukayo ngo-2024. Kungase kube nomunye umjikelezo wemakethe yezinkunzi zempahla, kodwa izinga lemakethe yezinkunzi lingase libe buthakathaka uma kuqhathaniswa.Uma ezinye izehlakalo ezingalindelekile zenzeka phakathi nenqubo yokusimama komnotho, amanani entengo yempahla nawo angase ehle futhi alungiseke.Kulindeleke ukuthi uhla lokusebenza lwe-Jiangsu octanol lube phakathi kuka-11500-14000 yuan/ton, ngenani lentengo elimaphakathi lonyaka elingu-12658 yuan/ton.Kulindeleke ukuthi intengo ephansi kakhulu ye-octanol yonyaka wonke izovela engxenyeni yesine, ku-11500 yuan/ton;Inani eliphakeme kakhulu lonyaka livele engxenyeni yesibili neyesithathu, ku-14000 yuan/ton.Kulindeleke ukuthi kusukela ngo-2025 kuya ku-2026, izintengo ezimaphakathi zonyaka ze-octanol emakethe ye-Jiangsu zizoba ngu-10000 yuan/ton kanye no-9000 yuan/ton, ngokulandelana.