1,Ukubuka konke kokukhiqizwa kwemakethe ye-Octanol kanye nobudlelwano be-Supply-Build ngo-2023

Ngo-2023, ethonywe yizinto ezahlukahlukene,ocsanolImboni yathola ukwehla ekwenziweni nasekukhiweni kwegebe lesifutho. Ukuvela kaningi kwamadivayisi wokupaka kanye nokugcina kuholele ekunyuseni okungalungile konyaka ekukhiqizweni kwasekhaya, okuyisikhathi esingavamile eminyakeni eminingi. Ukukhiqizwa konyaka okulinganiselwa ku-7.3992 million amathani, ukwehla kwamathani angama-786900 kusuka ku-2022. Izinga lokusebenzisa amandla selinciphile, ukusuka ngaphezulu kwe-100% ku-95.09%.

Ngokombono wamandla okukhiqiza, kubalwe ngokususelwa kumthamo wedizayini wamathani ayizigidi ezingama-2,523, umthamo wangempela wokukhiqiza uphakeme kunale nombolo. Kodwa-ke, ukwanda kwezikhungo ezintsha zokukhiqiza kuholele ekukhuphukeni kwesizinda samandla okukhiqiza, kuyilapho izindawo ezintsha ezinjenge-Zibo Nuo Ao kuphela zaqala ukukhiqizwa ngasekupheleni konyaka, kanye nokukhishwa kwamakhono okukhiqiza eBachuan, uNingxia uhlehlisiwe kuze kube ekuqaleni kuka-2024. Lokhu kuholele ekunciphiseni kwezinga lokusebenza lomthwalo we-octanol ngo-2023 kanye nokulahlekelwa ekukhiqizweni.

2,Ukuhlaziywa okujulile kokuhlinzekwa kanye nokufunwa ubudlelwano be-Octanol

Ukwehla kwe-1.production kanye nokuhlinzekwa kwe-Gap: yize ukukhiqizwa kwezikhungo ezintsha kubambezelekile kanti ezinye izindawo ezivuselelwe azizange zisetshenziswe njengoba zihleliwe, ukukhula okuqhubekayo kwesidingo esisezingeni eliphansi kwaqala ukuvela ngemuva kwekota yesine, ukuhlinzeka ukwesekwa kwe I-Octanol Market. Kusukela ngoJulayi kuya kuSepthemba, ngenxa yokulungiswa okumaphakathi, ukunikezwa kwehle kakhulu, ngenkathi ukwanda kwesidingo kuholele ekukhuphukeni kwezinga elibi legebe le-supple.

2.MunSinstream Funch Ukuhlaziywa: Ukuthandwa kwemakethe yepulasitiki kuye kwaphindeka kabusha, futhi isidingo sonke sibonisa umkhuba ongaphezulu. Ukusuka ekuhlinzekweni nasekufunweni kwemikhiqizo emikhulu ephansi njenge-dop, i-Dotp, ne-isooctyl acrylate, kungabonakala ukuthi ukuhlinzekwa kwe-dop kuyanda kakhulu, kube nokwanda okubalulekile ekukhuleni kwe-octanol ukusetshenziswa. Ukukhiqizwa kwe-DoTP kwehle cishe ngo-2%, kepha kunokushintshashintsha okuncane okukhona kwesidingo sangempela sokusetshenziswa kwe-octanol. Ukukhiqizwa kwe-isooctyl acrylate kukhuphuke ngo-4%, okubuye kube nomthelela ekukhuleni kokusetshenziswa kwe-octanol.

I-3.Fluuntutions ezindaweni ezibonakalayo ezingaphezulu ezibonakalayo ezibonakalayo: Ukuhlinzekwa kwe-propylene kuyaqhubeka ukwanda, kepha intengo yayo iwile kakhulu, yandise igebe ngentengo ye-octanol. Lokhu kunciphisa ingcindezi yezindleko embonini ye-octanol, kodwa futhi kukhombisa umehluko ezindaweni ezisebenza phansi kanye nezitayela ezisebenzayo.

3,Ukubuka Kwezimakethe Zesikhathi Esizayo Nokungaqiniseki Kwamandla Wokukhiqiza Amasha

I-OverplePly Side Outlook: Kulindelwe ukuthi ukukhishwa komthamo omusha wokukhiqiza kuzobhekana nokungaqiniseki ngo-2024. Kulindelwe ukuthi iningi lezakhiwo ze-AnQing Shuguang ze-AnQuang zidinga ukukhishwa engxenyeni yesibili yonyaka kuze kube sekupheleni konyaka. Imishini yokulungiswa kabusha kaShandong Jianlan ingabambezeleka kuze kube sekupheleni konyaka, okwenza kube nzima ukuphumula amandla okuhambisa i-Octanol engxenyeni yokuqala yonyaka. Ngenxa yezinto ezifana nokulungiswa kwentwasahlobo, kulindeleke ukuthi i-octanol iqhubeke nokusebenza ngokuqinile engxenyeni yokuqala ye-2024.

2.Bheka okulindelwe ohlangothini olufunwayo: kusuka ekubukeni okukhulu kwe-macro kanye ne-cyclical, okufunwa phansi kulindeleke ukuthi kukhuliswe esikhathini esizayo. Lokhu kuzohlanganisa ukuhlanganisa iphethini edingekayo ye-Octanol Kulindelwe ukuthi ukuthambekela kwemakethe ngo-2024 cishe kuzokhombisa umkhuba ophakeme ngaphambili nangaphansi ngemuva. Engxenyeni yesibili yonyaka, ngokukhishwa kwamandla okukhiqiza amasha okuhlinzekwa kwemakethe kanye nokulindela ukwehla kwe-cyclical ekufuneni okuphansi, uhlangothi lwentengo lungabhekana nezinguquko ezithile.

3.Fututure ukweqa amandla kanye nokuncipha kokugxila kwemakethe: Eminyakeni ezayo, ukukhiqizwa okuhleliwe kwamayunithi amaningi e-octanol kuzogxila kakhulu. Ngasikhathi sinye, ukunwetshwa kwe-Downstream Demand kuhamba kancane, futhi isimo esengeziwe sezimboni sizoqina. Kulindeleke ukuthi ukugxila kokusebenza kwe-Octanol konke kunciphe ngokuzayo, futhi ama-amplitude wemakethe angancipha.

I-4.Global Commodity Price Outlook: Kulindelwe ukuthi ukuthambekela okungezansi kwamanani entengo yezimpahla zomhlaba wonke kungahle kwehlise ijubane ngo-2024. Kungahle kube nomjikelezo omusha wemakethe yezimpahla, kepha lo mjikelezo wemakethe yenkunzi ungahle ube buthakathaka. Uma kwenzeka izehlakalo ezingalindelekile ngesikhathi senqubo yokuvuselela umnotho, amanani entengo yezimpahla angahle alungise.

Sekukonke, i-Octanol Market ibhekene nezinselelo zokunciphisa ukukhiqizwa nokwandisa izikhala ezifunwayo ngo-2023. Noma kunjalo, ukukhula okuqhubekayo kwesidingo esisezingeni eliphansi kunikeze ukusekelwa kwemakethe. Uma ubheka phambili, kulindeleke ukuthi imakethe iqhubeke nokugcina umkhuba oqinile wokusebenza, kepha kungabhekana nengcindezi yokulungiswa engxenyeni yesibili yonyaka.

Ukubheka phambili ku-2024, inkambiso yomhlaba wonke yokuwohloka kwentengo yezimpahla ingahle yehlise ijubane, futhi amanani ngokuvamile akhombisa ukuthambekela okuphezulu ngo-2024. Kungabanye umjikelezo wemakethe yezemidlalo, kepha izinga lemakethe yenkunzi kungenzeka libuthakathaka. Uma ezinye izehlakalo ezingalindelekile zenzeka ngesikhathi senqubo yokuvuselela umnotho, amanani entengo yezimpahla nawo kungenzeka anciphe futhi alungiswe. Kulindelwe ukuthi uhla olusebenzayo lweJiangsu Octanol lube phakathi kuka-11500-14000 yuan / ithoni, ngentengo ephakathi yonyaka ye-12658 Yuan / Ton. Kulindelwe ukuthi intengo ephansi kakhulu ye-Octanol yonyaka wonke izovela kwikota yesine, ngo-11500 yuan / ton; Intengo ephezulu kakhulu yonyaka ivele endaweni yesibili neyesithathu, ngo-14000 yuan / ton. Kulindeleke ukuthi kusukela ngo-2025 kuya ku-2026, amanani entengo yonyaka we-Octanol emakethe yeJiangsu azoba ngo-100 yuan / ton kanye ne-9000 yuan / ithoni, ngokulandelana.