Intengo ye-Toluene disocyanateI-s yaqala ukukhuphuka futhi ngo-September 28, ikhuphuke ngo-1.3%, ecashunwe ku-19601 yuan/ton, ukukhuphuka okuhlanganisiwe kwe-30% kusukela ngo-Agasti 3. Ngemva kwalesi sikhathi sokunyuka, intengo ye-TDI isisondele endaweni ephakeme ye-19,800 yuan / ton ngoFebhuwari kulo nyaka. Ngaphansi kokulinganisa okuvamile, izinga lokukhula elimaphakathi lonyaka lesidingo se-TDI eminyakeni embalwa ezayo lizoba cishe ku-5.52%. Uma sibheka phambili engxenyeni yesibili yonyaka, amakhemikhali azongenisa imigqa emibili eyinhloko yokululama ngaphakathi nangaphandle, futhi umthamo wokuthunyelwa kwamakhemikhali aseChina eYurophu uzokhula kakhulu.

Ngokukhethekile ezinkampanini ezisohlwini, i-Wanhua Chemical yamemezela ukuthi kusukela ngo-Okthoba 2022, intengo esohlwini ye-Wanhua Chemical Group Co., Ltd. ye-polymeric MDI e-China ingu-RMB19,800/ton (ikhuphuke ngo-RMB2,300/ton kusukela ngentengo kaSepthemba); intengo esohlwini ye-MDI emsulwa ingu-RMB23,000/ton (ikhuphuke ngo-RMB2,000/ton kusukela ngentengo kaSepthemba).

Isamba esingama-32% sezinkampani ezidinga amandla kagesi ziphoqelekile ukuthi zisike konke noma ingxenye yokukhiqiza kwazo ngenxa yokwenyuka okubukhali kwamanani entengo kagesi yemvelo yaseYurophu, okuyinkomba yokuphinda kabili isilinganiso sembonini yonkana. Ukukhiqizwa kwe-European MDI kanye ne-TDI kokubili kungaphezu kwekota yokukhiqizwa komhlaba wonke, kanti izitshalo zamakhemikhali zaseYurophu naseMelika i-MDI kanye ne-TDI zikhiqiza igebe lokuhlinzeka.

Ama-ejensi aveza ukuthi intengo yegesi yemvelo kulindeleke ukuthi ihlale iphezulu uma kuqhathaniswa nokwanda kokungaqiniseki mayelana nokungeniswa kwegesi yaseYurophu. Igesi yemvelo iwumthombo wamandla wezimboni obalulekile kanye nempahla eluhlaza kwamanye amakhemikhali eYurophu. Umthamo wamanje wokukhiqiza wase-Europe uhlanganise inani eliphakeme kakhulu lamavithamini, i-methionine, i-PVP, i-MDI, i-TDI, i-m-cresol, njll. Emabhizinisini asekhaya afanelekile, ngakolunye uhlangothi, kulindeleke ukuthi ahlomule ekukhuphukeni kwamanani esifunda amakhemikhali abalulekile e-Europe adluliselwe emalini engenayo yokwenyuka kwamanani omhlaba, ngakolunye uhlangothi, ungasebenzisa izindleko eziphansi uma kuqhathaniswa zezinto zokusetshenziswa zasekhaya ukuze ukhuphule i-compe.

Umbiko wocwaningo lweGuoxin Securities uveze ukuthi i-MDI emsulwa, kusukela ngoSepthemba 8, imithombo yaseShanghai inikela nge-18,200-18,800 yuan / ton, imithombo engenisiwe inikela nge-18,200-18,800 yuan /. I-TDI, ku-2022, ukushuba kwezingxabano zezwe noma isimo sezulu esibi kakhulu kwaholela ekwenyukeni okukhulu kwenkinga yamandla yaseYurophu, izinkampani zamakhemikhali zaseYurophu zizoqhubeka nokuba ngaphansi kwezindleko zamandla ezikhulayo kanye nokushoda kwezinto ezingavuthiwe Umthelela omubi wemakethe yakamuva, i-Europe - China ukusabalala kwe-TDI iye yaqhubeka yanda yaba ngaphezu kwe-$ 1400 / ton. Njengamanje, ingcindezi ye-inventory ye-TDI phakathi nendawo nangaphansi ayinkulu, kodwa ukugaya kwesidingo setheminali kusahamba kancane. Abahlaziyi basikisela ukunaka ngenkuthalo ukusebenza kwemishini yaphesheya kanye nokuma kokuthekelisa kwabakhiqizi basekhaya.

Ngokombono wesidingo sesikhathi esimaphakathi neside, i-MDI, isidingo somhlaba wonke se-MDI siqhubekile nokukhula eminyakeni eyi-10 edlule, sisuka kumathani ayizigidi ezi-4.65 ngo-2011 saya kumathani ayizigidi eziyisi-7.385 ngo-2020, nge-CAGR ka-5.27%, ephakeme kunezinga lokukhula kwe-GDP ngesikhathi esifanayo, futhi isidingo sokukhula ngesilinganiso se-5% 4% -6%) eminyakeni emi-5 ezayo. Isidingo se-MDI kulindeleke ukuthi sikhule ku-CAGR ka-5% (4% -6%) eminyakeni emihlanu ezayo. Ngaphansi kwezilinganiso eziqinile, abahlaziyi babale ukuthi izinga lokukhula elimaphakathi lonyaka lesidingo se-TDI eminyakeni embalwa ezayo lizoba cishe ku-5.52%.

Uma sibheka phambili engxenyeni yesibili yonyaka, imboni yamakhemikhali izongenisa imigqa emibili eyinhloko yokululama kwangaphakathi nangaphandle, ngenxa yamanani aphezulu amanje anamandla eYurophu akhuphuka kancane kancane emikhiqizweni yamakhemikhali, amanani omkhiqizo wamakhemikhali aseYurophu athuthuke, amanani amakhemikhali asekhaya kanye namanani aseYurophu ayaqhubeka nokwandisa igebe, kuhambisana nentengo yempahla yasolwandle ihlehle, abahlaziyi bakholelwa ukuthi inani lamakhemikhali aseShayina azokwenyuka kakhulu eYurophu.

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