In 2022 the polycarbonate (PC) market as a whole for the downward trend, the decline intensified in June, the market broke down. July the domestic PC market decline gradually narrowed, the upstream bisphenol A market stopped falling, the cost side of the PC support effect is not strong. The supply side of the field is abundant, high inventory, the demand side to buy low, the overall improvement is limited.

Overall, the first quarter started with a flat market, but by early mid-March began to surge higher, prices hit a high in the first half of the year. late March began to gradually fall, after which the market continued to oscillate. June market short-side dominance, some domestic material prices fell below 16,000 yuan, while imported materials also basically fell back to 18,000 yuan near the overall price basically touched the lowest point since 2021.

PC prices rose sharply in early mid-March mainly by the impact of the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the crude oil market rose sharply, stimulating the overall rise in commodity prices. Along with the raw material surge, low-cost sources gradually consumed, high-cost sources have been entering the field, coupled with PC producers factory quotes up, for the market bullish mentality added to help, traders quotes have been raised. In the bullish market, the downstream and some of the retail customers also entered the field to stock up, the overall market trading to good, traders speculation mentality is more obvious.

Since then, the raw material bisphenol A quotes run weakly, driving the PC market continued downward. In the first half of the year, Zhejiang Petrochemical and Hainan Huasheng bisphenol A new production capacity into the market one after another. By the end of June, China’s total bisphenol A production capacity increased to 2.725 million tons / year, an increase of 36.59%. Bisphenol A production capacity increased significantly, resulting in continued weakness in the market, factory quotations were also significantly reduced by up to 1,000 yuan. Cost support weakened, PC imports and domestic material quotes are significantly lower.

On the demand side, the domestic epidemic repeatedly, the overall weakening demand, traders under pressure to ship. Hainan Huasheng and Pingxing Shenmar PC plant has been put into operation, resulting in increased contradictions between supply and demand, the PC market broke down, some of the imported material quotations have been at the edge of the inverted.

It is expected that the domestic PC market as a whole is first depressed after the trend. Along with the arrival of the “Golden Nine Silver Ten”, the PC market may have a wave of higher expectations, but the contradiction between supply and demand is still prominent, or limit the PC price upside.

In the first half of the year, the overall demand for PC did not increase, the end consumption showed a gradual weakening of the trend. Plate and bucket industry starts gradually reduced, especially the plate factory orders are scarce, and the export market continues to be depressed. However, these areas are expected to be mildly repaired in the second half of the year. What can be concluded is that the country’s supporting policies will not be less, and the means to release funds, resume work and production in various fields and promote the economy in August to September will be the key. Therefore, there is a certain probability that policies such as the September cut will also play a certain role in promoting demand.

In addition, there are also positive aspects of new energy vehicles, there is a significant increase in production, the PC market to form a lift.

The PC industry has entered a comprehensive surplus stage, the price war will become more and more intense, the past glory is difficult to reproduce.

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