Ngo-Ephreli 2024, imakethe yepulasitiki yobunjiniyela yakhombisa ukuthambekela okuxubile kokukhuphuka nokwehla. Ukutholakala okuqinile kwezimpahla kanye nezintengo ezikhuphukayo sekuphenduke into ehamba phambili enyusa imakethe, futhi amasu okupaka kanye nokukhulisa amanani ezitshalo ezinkulu ze-petrochemical kukhuthaze ukukhuphuka kwemakethe yendawo. Kodwa-ke, isidingo semakethe esibuthakathaka siphinde saholela ekwehleni kwezinye izintengo zomkhiqizo. Ngokuqondile, amanani entengo yemikhiqizo efanaPMMA, i-PC, ne-PA6 inyukile, kuyilapho amanani emikhiqizo efana ne-PET, i-PBT, i-PA6, ne-POM yehlile.

PC market

Uhlangothi lokuhlinzekwa kwempahla: Ngo-Ephreli, imakethe ye-PC yasekhaya yabhekana noguquko oluncane nokuhlanganiswa ngaphambi kokugqashuka nokukhuphuka. Ekupheleni kwenyanga, izintengo ziphinde zakhuphuka zafika ezingeni eliphezulu kakhulu kusukela ngekota yesine yonyaka odlule. Engxenyeni yokuqala yenyanga, nakuba imishini ye-PC ye-Hainan Huasheng yavalwa futhi yalungiswa ulayini ogcwele, ukusebenza kwawo wonke amanye ama-PC asekhaya kwakuzinzile, futhi kwakungekho ngcindezi enkulu evela ezinhlangothini zombili zokuhlinzeka nokufunwa. Kodwa-ke, engxenyeni yokugcina yonyaka, ngokuphindaphindeka okuphawulekayo kwe-PC yezinto zokusetshenziswa ezikhuphuka nomfula kanye nokukhuphuka okuqhubekayo kwezinto ezihambisanayo, kuhlanganiswe nokusebenza kwesitoko kwamanye amafekthri angaphansi komfula ngaphambi koSuku lukaMeyi, amanani e-PC akhuphuka ngokushesha. NgoMeyi, nakuba zisekhona izinhlelo zokulungisa idivayisi ye-PC, kulindeleke ukuthi ukulahlekelwa kokulungisa kuzocishwa. Ngesikhathi esifanayo, umthamo wokukhiqiza idivayisi ye-PC ye-Hengli Petrochemical amathani angu-260000/ngonyaka uzokhululwa kancane kancane, ngakho-ke kulindeleke ukuthi ukunikezwa kwe-PC yasekhaya ngoMeyi kuzokwanda uma kuqhathaniswa nalokho okulindeleke kule nyanga.

Uhlangothi lwesidingo: Ekupheleni kuka-Ephreli, nakuba amanani emakethe ye-PC enyukile, kwakungekho okulindelwe okuhle okubalulekile ohlangothini lwesidingo. Ukuthengwa kwe-PC engezansi akukwazanga ukuqhubekisela phambili imakethe phezulu. Ukungena ngoMeyi, kulindeleke ukuthi uhlangothi lwesidingo luhlale luzinzile, okwenza kube nzima ukuba nomthelela omkhulu wokushayela emakethe ye-PC.

Uhlangothi lwezindleko: Ngokwezindleko, impahla eluhlaza i-bisphenol A kulindeleke ukuthi iguquguquke kancane ngezinga eliphezulu ngoMeyi, ngokusekelwa kwezindleko ezilinganiselwe ze-PC. Ngaphezu kwalokho, njengoba amanani entengo e-PC enyuka afinyelela cishe kuhhafu wonyaka phezulu futhi kungabikho izisekelo ze-bullish ezanele, okulindelwe ubungozi bemakethe kuyenyuka, futhi ukuthathwa kwenzuzo nokuthunyelwa kuzokhuphuka, kuqhubeke kucindezela amamajini enzuzo e-PC.

PA6 Slice Market

Uhlangothi lokunikezela: Ngo-Ephreli, imakethe yokusika i-PA6 yayinohlangothi olwanele lokuhlinzeka. Ngenxa yokuqaliswa kabusha kwemishini yokulungisa i-caprolactam yezinto ezingavuthiwe, umthwalo wokusebenza unyukile, futhi i-inventory yempahla eluhlaza esitshalweni se-polymerization isezingeni eliphezulu. Ngesikhathi esifanayo, ukunikezwa kwesayithi nakho kubonisa isimo esanele. Nakuba amanye amafekthri ahlanganisayo anohlu lwamagama olulinganiselwe, iningi lawo lilethela ama-oda kusenesikhathi, futhi ingcindezi yokuhlinzeka iphelele ayibalulekile. Ukungena ngoMeyi, ukuhlinzekwa kwe-caprolactam kwaqhubeka kwanele, futhi ukukhiqizwa kwezimboni ze-polymerization kwahlala kusezingeni eliphezulu. Ukunikezwa kwendawo kwahlala kwanele. Ezinsukwini zokuqala, amanye amafektri aqhubeka nokuletha ama-oda kusenesikhathi, futhi ingcindezi yokuhlinzeka kulindeleke ukuthi iqhubeke. Kodwa-ke, kubalulekile ukuqaphela ukuthi intuthuko yakamuva enhle yohwebo lokuthekelisa, ukwanda kwemiyalelo yokuthumela ngaphandle ehlanganisiwe, noma ukuqhubeka kohlu olubi lwenani elincane lezimboni, kuzoba nomthelela othile ohlangothini lokuhlinzeka.

Uhlangothi lwesidingo: Ngo-Ephreli, uhlangothi lwesidingo lwemakethe yokusika i-PA6 lwaluyisilinganiso. Ukuhlanganiswa komfula kuhlanganisa ukuthengwa kwempahla okudingekayo okunesidingo esilinganiselwe. Ngaphansi kwethonya lokufunwa phansi komfula, amafekthri asenyakatho ehlise amanani efekthri yawo. Kodwa-ke, njengoba iholide likaMeyi lisondela, isimo sokuthengiselana emakethe siye saba ngcono, futhi ezinye izimboni zokuhlanganisa zithengiswa kusengaphambili kuze kube sekupheleni kweholide likaMeyi. NgoMeyi, uhlangothi lwesidingo kulindeleke ukuthi luhlale luzinzile. Engxenyeni yokuqala yonyaka, amanye amafekthri aqhubekile nokuletha ama-oda kusenesikhathi, kuyilapho ukuhlanganisa okungaphansi komfula kusathembele kakhulu ekuthengeni okufunekayo, okubangele isidingo esilinganiselwe. Kodwa-ke, uma kubhekwa intuthuko enhle yohwebo lokuthekelisa kanye nokwenyuka kwama-oda okuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe ahlanganisiwe, lokhu kuzoba nomthelela othile omuhle ohlangothini lwesidingo.

Uhlangothi lwezindleko: Ngo-Ephreli, ukusekelwa kwezindleko ezibuthakathaka kwakuyisici esiyinhloko semakethe yokusika i-PA6. Ukushintshashintsha kwentengo ye-caprolactam yempahla eluhlaza kube nomthelela othile ezindlekweni zokusika, kodwa sekukonke, ukusekelwa kwezindleko kunqunyelwe. Ukungena ngoMeyi, uhlangothi lwezindleko kulindeleke ukuthi luqhubeke nokuguquguquka. Ngenxa yokunikezwa okwanele kwe-caprolactam, ukushintshashintsha kwentengo yayo kuzoba nomthelela oqondile ezindlekweni zokusikwa kwe-PA6. Kulindeleke ukuthi imakethe izohlala ibuthakathaka futhi izinzile ezinsukwini eziyishumi zokuqala, kuyilapho ezinsukwini eziyishumi zesibili, imakethe ingase ilandele ukuguquguquka kwezindleko futhi ibonise umkhuba othile wokulungisa.

PA66 Market

Uhlangothi lokuhlinzekwa kwempahla: Ngo-Ephreli, imakethe yasekhaya ye-PA66 ikhombise ukuguquguquka, nezintengo ezimaphakathi zanyanga zonke zehle kancane ngo-0.12% ngenyanga kanye no-2.31% unyaka nonyaka. Naphezu kokukhuphuka kwentengo yokubulawa ngamayuan angu-1500/ton nge-Yingweida yezinto ezingavuthiwe ze-hexamethylenediamine, ukukhiqizwa kuka-Tianchen Qixiang kwe-hexamethylenediamine kuhlale kuzinzile, futhi ukwanda kokunikezwa kwezinto ezingavuthiwe kuholele ekuhlanganisweni okubuthakathaka kwentengo yendawo ye-hexamethylenediamine. Sekukonke, uhlangothi lokunikezela luzinzile futhi imakethe inokutholakala kwamabala amaningi. NgoMeyi, iyunithi ye-Nvidia adiponitrile ihlelelwe ukunakekelwa inyanga eyodwa, kodwa intengo yokusetshenziswa kwe-adiponitrile ihlala izinzile ku-26500 yuan/ton, kanye neyunithi ye-Tianchen Qixiang adiponitrile nayo igcina ukusebenza okuzinzile. Ngakho-ke, kulindeleke ukuthi ukuhlinzekwa kwezinto ezingavuthiwe kuzoqhubeka kuzinzile futhi ngeke kube khona ukushintshashintsha okuphawulekayo ohlangothini lokuhlinzeka.

Uhlangothi lwesidingo: Ngo-Ephreli, isidingo setheminali sasibuthakathaka, futhi umuzwa ongezansi mayelana nezintengo eziphezulu wawunamandla. Imakethe yayigxile kakhulu ekuthengeni izidingo eziqinile. Nakuba ukunikezwa kuzinzile futhi kuningi, isidingo esinganele senza kube nzima ukuthi imakethe ibonise ukukhuphuka okukhulu. Kulindeleke ukuthi isidingo setheminali sizohlala sibuthakathaka ngoMeyi, ngaphandle kwezindaba ezinhle ezisikhulisayo. Amabhizinisi aphansi kulindeleke ukuthi aqhubeke nokugxila ekuthengeni okubalulekile, futhi isidingo semakethe mancane amathuba okuba sithuthuke kakhulu. Ngakho-ke, ohlangothini lwesidingo, imakethe ye-PA66 isazobhekana nengcindezi ethile eyehlayo.

Uhlangothi lwezindleko: Ngo-April, ukusekela ohlangothini lwezindleko bekuzinzile uma kuqhathaniswa, nezintengo ze-adipic acid ne-adipic acid zikhombisa ukuguquguquka. Naphezu kokushintshashintsha kwamanani ezinto ezibonakalayo, akubanga khona ushintsho olubalulekile ekusekelweni kwezindleko kukonke. Ukungena ngoMeyi, ukugcinwa kweyunithi ye-Nvidia adiponitrile kungase kube nomthelela othile ezindlekweni zezinto ezingavuthiwe, kodwa amanani entengo ye-adipic acid ne-adipic acid kulindeleke ukuthi ahlale ezinzile. Ngakho-ke, ngokombono wezindleko, ukusekelwa kwezindleko zemakethe ye-PA66 kuhlala kuzinzile.

Imakethe ye-POM

Uhlangothi lokuhlinzekwa kwempahla: Ngo-Ephreli, imakethe ye-POM yabhekana nenqubo yokucindezelwa kuqala bese yandisa ukunikezwa. Ezinsukwini zokuqala, ngenxa yeholide loMkhosi we-Qingming kanye nokwehliswa kwamanani ezitshalweni ze-petrochemical, ukunikezwa kwemakethe kwakuxege; Ukugcinwa kwemishini yaphakathi nenyanga kuholele ekuqinisweni kwempahla, ukwenyuka kwamanani okusekela; Engxenyeni yokugcina yonyaka, imishini yokulungisa yabuyiselwa, kodwa ukushoda kwezimpahla kwaqhubeka. Kulindeleke ukuthi uhlangothi lokunikezela lugcine umbono omuhle ngoMeyi. I-Shenhua Ningmei kanye ne-Xinjiang Guoye banezinhlelo zokunakekela, kuyilapho i-Hengli Petrochemical ihlela ukwandisa ukukhiqizwa, futhi ukuhlinzekwa okuphelele kuzohlala kuqinile.

Uhlangothi lwesidingo: Isidingo semakethe ye-POM ngo-Ephreli sasibuthakathaka, futhi ikhono letheminali lokwamukela ama-oda lalingelikhulu. NgoMeyi, kulindeleke ukuthi isidingo sokugcina sizoqhubeka sibe yisidingo esiqinile sama-oda amancane, futhi ifektri izobamba u-50-60% wokukhiqiza futhi ilinde isiqondiso se-oda elisha.

Uhlangothi lwezindleko: Uhlangothi lwezindleko lunomthelela olinganiselwe emakethe ye-POM ngo-Ephreli, kodwa kulindeleke ukuthi amakhotheshini amaphakathi kuya phezulu azohlala eqinile ngoMeyi ngenxa yomthelela wokunyuka kwentengo yezinto ezibonakalayo ezingenisiwe. Kodwa-ke, isidingo esibuthakathaka nokuncintisana okuvela emithonjeni esezingeni eliphansi kuzothinta okunikezwayo okuphansi, okungase kuholele ekubhekeni phansi.

Imakethe ye-PET

Uhlangothi lokuhlinzekwa kwempahla: Ngo-Ephreli, imakethe ye-polyester bottle chip yaqala yanyuswa uwoyela ongahluziwe nezinto zokusetshenziswa, njengoba amanani enyuka. Engxenyeni yesibili yenyanga, amanani entengo yezinto ezibonakalayo ehlile, kodwa izimboni zikhuphule amanani, futhi imakethe isagcina izinga elithile lentengo. Ukungena ngoMeyi, ezinye izikhungo eningizimu-ntshonalanga zingalungiswa ngokuya ngesimo sempahla eluhlaza, futhi ukunikezwa kungase kukhuphuke kancane ngaphansi kokulindela kwezindawo ezintsha ezizoqala ukusebenza.

Uhlangothi lwesidingo: Ukukhathazeka ngemakethe ngo-Ephreli kwenze abahwebi baqala phansi futhi abahwebi baphinde bathengisa, ngokuhweba okusebenzayo engxenyeni yesibili yenyanga. NgoMeyi, kulindeleke ukuthi imboni yeziphuzo ezibandayo ingene enkathini yokugcwalisa kabusha, ngokwenyuka kwesidingo samashidi e-PET kanye nokuba ngcono okuphelele kwesidingo sasekhaya.

Uhlangothi lwezindleko: Ukusekelwa kwezindleko bekunamandla engxenyeni yokuqala ka-Ephreli, kodwa kwaba buthaka engxenyeni yesibili. NgoMeyi, ukwehla okulindelekile kuwoyela ongahluziwe kanye noshintsho ekunikezeni impahla eluhlaza kungase kuholele ekusekelweni kwezindleko ezibuthakathaka.

Imakethe ye-PBT

Uhlangothi lokuhlinzekwa kwempahla: Ngo-Ephreli, kube nokunakekelwa okuncane kwamadivayisi we-PBT, okuholele ekukhiqizeni okuphezulu kanye nohlangothi oluvulekile lokuhlinzeka. NgoMeyi, amanye amadivayisi e-PBT kulindeleke ukuthi alungiswe, futhi kulindeleke ukuthi ukunikezwa kuzokwehla kancane. Kodwa-ke, sekukonke, uhlangothi lokunikezela luzoqhubeka luphezulu.

Uhlangothi lwezindleko: Ngo-April, uhlangothi lwezindleko lubonise ukuthambekela okuguquguqukayo, nezintengo zemakethe ye-PTA ekuqaleni zaziqinile futhi kamuva zaba buthaka, i-BDO iqhubeka nokwehla, kanye nokudluliswa kwezindleko ezimbi. Ukungena ngoMeyi, amanani emakethe ye-PTA angase akhuphuke kuqala bese ehla, nezindleko zokucubungula ziba phansi uma kuqhathaniswa; Intengo yemakethe ye-BDO isezingeni eliphansi, inokumelana nokuhweba okuphezulu emakethe, futhi kulindeleke ukuthi uhlangothi lwezindleko lugcine ukuguquguquka kwebanga.

Uhlangothi lwesidingo: Ngo-April, abathengi abangaphansi komfula kanye netheminali baphinde bathenga kabusha kuma-dips, kanye nokuthengiselana okuzungeza ama-oda amancane afunwayo, okwenza kube nzima ukuthi isidingo semakethe sithuthuke. Ukungena ngoMeyi, imakethe ye-PBT ingenise isizini yakudala, kanti imboni yokuphotha kulindeleke ukuthi ibe nokwehla kokukhiqiza. Isidingo sokuguqulwa kulo mkhakha sisesihle, kodwa inzuzo yehlile. Ngaphezu kwalokho, ngenxa yengqondo ye-bearish emakethe yesikhathi esizayo, umdlandla wokuthenga izimpahla awuphezulu, futhi imikhiqizo eminingi ithengwa njengoba kudingeka. Sekukonke, uhlangothi lwesidingo lungase luqhubeke nokuvilapha.

Imakethe ye-PMMA

Uhlangothi lokuhlinzekwa kwempahla: Nakuba ukukhiqizwa kwezinhlayiya ze-PMMA emakethe kwenyukile ngenxa yokwanda kwesisekelo sokukhiqiza ngo-April, ukusebenza kwefekthri kwehle kancane. Kulindeleke ukuthi isimo sezinhlayiya eziqinile ngoMeyi singadambisi ngokuphelele esikhathini esifushane, futhi ezinye izimboni zingase zibe nokulindelwe ukunakekelwa, ngakho ukusekelwa kokuhlinzeka kusekhona.

Uhlangothi lwesidingo: Ukuthengwa kwezidingo eziqinile eziphansi komfula, kodwa kuqaphile ekuphishekeleni isidingo esikhulu. Ukungena ngoMeyi, isimo sengqondo sokuthenga esibulalayo sihlala siqaphile, futhi imakethe igcina isidingo esinamandla. Uhlangothi lwesidingo:

Izindleko ezihlakaniphile: Isilinganiso senani lentengo ye-MMA yempahla eluhlaza emakethe yenyuke kakhulu ngo-Ephreli, nezintengo ezimaphakathi zanyanga zonke ezimakethe zaseMpumalanga China, eShandong, naseNingizimu China zikhuphuka ngo-15.00%, 16.34%, kanye no-8.00% ngenyanga, ngokulandelana. Izingcindezi zezindleko ziholele ekwenyukeni kwamanani emakethe yezinhlayiyana. Kulindeleke ukuthi izintengo ze-MMA zihlale ziphezulu esikhathini esifushane, futhi izindleko zezimboni zezinhlayiya zizoqhubeka nokuba ngaphansi kwengcindezi.