1, Ukuhlaziywa komkhuba wemakethe we-benzene ehlanzekile

Muva nje, imakethe ye-benzene emsulwa isizuze ukukhuphuka okubili okulandelanayo phakathi nezinsuku, nezinkampani ze-petrochemical e-East China ziqhubeka nokulungisa amanani, ngokukhuphuka okuhlanganisiwe kwama-yuan/ton angu-350 kuya ku-8850 yuan/ton. Naphezu kokwenyuka okuncane kwe-inventory emachwebeni ase-East China kuya kumathani angu-54000 ngoFebruwari 2024, intengo ye-benzene ehlanzekile ihlala iqinile. Ayini amandla abangela lokhu?

Okokuqala, saqaphela ukuthi imikhiqizo engaphansi komfula ye-benzene emsulwa, ngaphandle kwe-caprolactam ne-aniline, ilahlekelwe kakhulu. Kodwa-ke, ngenxa yokulandelwa kancane kwezintengo ze-benzene, inzuzo yemikhiqizo ephansi esifundeni saseShandong yinhle uma kuqhathaniswa. Lokhu kubonisa umehluko wemakethe namasu okuphendula ezifundeni ezahlukene.

Okwesibili, ukusebenza kwe-benzene emsulwa emakethe yangaphandle kuhlala kuqinile, kunokusimama okubalulekile kanye nokuguquguquka okuncane phakathi nesikhathi soMkhosi Wasentwasahlobo. Intengo ye-FOB e-South Korea isalokhu iku-$1039 ngethani, okusecishe ibe ngama-yuan angu-150/thani ngaphezu kwenani lasekhaya. Intengo ye-BZN nayo ihlale isezingeni eliphezulu, idlula i-$350 ngethani. Ngaphezu kwalokho, imakethe yokudluliswa kukawoyela yaseNyakatho Melika yafika ngaphambi kwesikhathi kunaseminyakeni edlule, ikakhulukazi ngenxa yokungahambi kahle kwezinto zokuhamba ePanama kanye nokwehla kokukhiqizwa okubangelwa isimo sezulu esibanda kakhulu ekuqaleni.

Nakuba kunengcindezi yokwenza inzuzo kanye nokusebenza kwe-benzene emsulwa ezansi nomfula, futhi kukhona ukushoda kokunikezwa kwe-benzene okumsulwa, impendulo engeyinhle ngenzuzo etholakala ezansi nomfula ayikaqali ukuvalwa kwesilinganiso esikhulu. Lokhu kukhombisa ukuthi imakethe isafuna ibhalansi, futhi i-benzene emsulwa, njengekhemikhali ebalulekile, ukungezwani kwayo kokunikezwa kusaqhubeka.

isithombe

2, Outlook on toluene market trends

Ngomhla ziyi-19 kuFebhruwari, 2024, ekupheleni kweholide Lomkhosi Wasentwasahlobo, imakethe ye-toluene yayinomoya oqinile we-bullish. Amakhotheshini emakethe eMpumalanga naseNingizimu China anyukile womabili, ngokwesilinganiso sokunyuka kwamanani afinyelela ku-3.68% no-6.14%, ngokulandelana. Lo mkhuba ungenxa yokuhlanganiswa okuphezulu kwamanani kawoyela ongahluziwe ngesikhathi soMkhosi Wasentwasahlobo, okusekela ngempumelelo imakethe ye-toluene. Ngesikhathi esifanayo, abahlanganyeli bemakethe banenjongo eqinile ye-bullish ebheke ku-toluene, futhi abanikazi balungisa amanani abo ngokufanele.

Kodwa-ke, umuzwa wokuthenga ezansi nomfula we-toluene awunamandla, futhi imithombo yezimpahla enenani eliphezulu kunzima ukuyihweba. Ngaphezu kwalokho, iyunithi yokuhlela kabusha yefekthri ethile e-Dalian izolungiswa ekupheleni kuka-March, okuzoholela ekunciphiseni okukhulu kokuthengiswa kwangaphandle kwe-toluene kanye nokuqina okuphawulekayo kokujikeleza kwemakethe. Ngokwezibalo ezivela ku-Baichuan Yingfu, amandla okukhiqiza asebenzayo ngonyaka embonini ye-toluene e-China angamathani ayizigidi ezingu-21.6972, nezinga lokusebenza lika-72.49%. Nakuba uwonke umthwalo wokusebenza we-toluene esizeni uzinzile njengamanje, kuneziqondiso ezinhle ezinomkhawulo ohlangothini lokunikezela.

Emakethe yamazwe ngamazwe, intengo ye-FOB ye-toluene ishintshile ezifundeni ezahlukene, kodwa umkhuba uwonke usalokhu uqinile.

3. Ukuhlaziywa kwesimo semakethe ye-xylene

Ngokufanayo ne-toluene, imakethe ye-xylene nayo ibonise isimo esihle lapho ibuyela emakethe ngemva kweholide langomhla ka-Febhruwari 19, 2024. Amanani avamile ezimakethe zaseMpumalanga naseNingizimu China anyukile womabili, ngokwesilinganiso sokunyuka kwentengo ngo-2.74% no-1.35. %, ngokulandelana. Lokhu kukhuphuka kuphinde kuthinteke ekukhuphukeni kwamanani kawoyela ongahluziwe emhlabeni jikelele, lapho ezinye izikhungo zokuhluza zasekhaya ziphakamisa amanani azo angaphandle. Abanikazi banombono omuhle, njengoba amanani emakethe evamile ekhuphuka. Kodwa-ke, imizwa yokulinda-ubone ezansi nomfula inamandla, futhi ukuthengiselana kulandela ngokucophelela.

Kuyaphawuleka ukuthi ukuhlelwa kabusha nokugcinwa kahle kwefekthri yakwa-Dalian ekupheleni kuka-March kuzokwandisa isidingo sokuthengwa kwe-xylene ngaphandle ukuze kuvaleke igebe lokuhlinzeka elibangelwa ukulungiswa. Ngokwezibalo ezingaphelele ezivela ku-Baichuan Yingfu, amandla okukhiqiza embonini ye-xylene e-China angamathani ayizigidi ezingu-43.4462, nezinga lokusebenza lika-72.19%. Ukulungiswa kwendawo yokucwenga e-Luoyang nase-Jiangsu kulindeleke ukuthi kuqhubeke kwehlisa ukunikezwa kwemakethe, kunikeze ukusekelwa kwemakethe ye-xylene.

Emakethe yamazwe ngamazwe, intengo ye-FOB ye-xylene iphinde ibonise ukuthambekela okuxubile kokukhuphuka nokwehla.

4, Intuthuko entsha emakethe ye-styrene

Imakethe ye-styrene ibe nezinguquko ezingajwayelekile kusukela kubuye uMkhosi Wasentwasahlobo. Ngaphansi kwengcindezi ekabili yokwenyuka okukhulu kwempahla kanye nokutholwa kancane kwesidingo semakethe, izingcaphuno zemakethe zibonise ukuthambekela okubanzi okukhuphukayo kulandela ubuhlakani bezindleko kanye nokuthambekela kwedola laseMelika. Ngokwemininingwane yangomhla ziyi-19 kuNhlolanja, intengo ephezulu ye-styrene esifundeni sase-East China ikhuphuke yaba ngaphezu kuka-9400 yuan/ton, ikhuphuke ngo-2.69% kusukela osukwini lokugcina lokusebenza ngaphambi kweholide.

Ngesikhathi soMkhosi Wasentwasahlobo, uwoyela ongahluziwe, amadola ase-US, kanye nezindleko konke kukhombise ukuthambekela okuqinile, okuholele ekwenyukeni okunqwabelanayo kwamathani angaphezu kuka-200000 we-styrene yokusungula emachwebeni ase-East China. Ngemuva kweholidi, intengo ye-styrene ihlukanisiwe nomthelela wokuhlinzeka nokufunwa, futhi esikhundleni salokho yafinyelela izinga eliphezulu ngokunyuka kwamanani ezindleko. Kodwa-ke, okwamanje i-styrene kanye nezimboni zayo eziyinhloko ezansi nomfula zisesimweni sokwenza ukulahlekelwa isikhathi eside, namazinga enzuzo angahlanganisiwe azungeze -650 yuan/ton. Ngenxa yezinkinga zokwenza inzuzo, izimboni ebezihlela ukunciphisa umsebenzi wazo ngaphambi kweholide azikaqali ukukhulisa amazinga azo okusebenza. Ngasohlangothini olungezansi komfula, ukwakhiwa kwamanye amafekthri amaholide kuyasimama kancane, futhi izisekelo zemakethe zisebuthakathaka.

Ngaphandle kokukhuphuka okuphezulu emakethe ye-styrene, umthelela wempendulo ongemuhle owehla nomfula ungase ubonakale kancane kancane. Uma kucatshangelwa ukuthi ezinye izimboni zihlela ukuqala kabusha ngasekupheleni kukaFebhuwari, uma imishini yokupaka ingaqalwa kabusha ngesikhathi esimisiwe, ingcindezi yokuhlinzekwa kwemakethe izokhula ngokuqhubekayo. Ngaleso sikhathi, imakethe ye-styrene izogxila kakhulu ekwehliseni isisindo, okungenzeka ngokwezinga elithile kudonsele phansi umqondo wokwenyuka kwezindleko.

Ngaphezu kwalokho, ngokombono we-arbitrage phakathi kwe-benzene emsulwa ne-styrene, umehluko wamanje wentengo phakathi kwakho kokubili ungama-yuan angama-500/ton, futhi lo mehluko wamanani wehlisiwe waba sezingeni eliphansi uma kuqhathaniswa. Ngenxa yenzuzo engeyinhle embonini ye-styrene nokusekelwa kwezindleko okuqhubekayo, uma isidingo semakethe sibuya kancane kancane