Ii-acrylonitrileimboni yethula umjikelezo wokukhishwa kwamandla ngo-2022, amandla akhula ngaphezu kuka-10% unyaka nonyaka kanye nengcindezi yokuhlinzeka. Ngesikhathi esifanayo, sibona ukuthi uhlangothi lwesidingo alulungile njengoba kufanele lube ngenxa yalolu bhubhane, futhi imboni ibuswa yi-downtrend, enezindawo ezikhanyayo okunzima ukuzithola.

Umthombo wedatha: Goldlink

Imakethe yasekhaya ye-acrylonitrile engxenyeni yokuqala ka-2022 ibonise ukwehla kokuqala okulandelwa uhla olubanzi lwe-oscillation ebuswa kakhulu. Uma sithatha imakethe yase-East China njengesibonelo, inani lentengo engxenyeni yokuqala ka-2022 laliku-RMB 11,455/ton, lehle ngo-21.29% unyaka nonyaka, ngentengo ephakeme kakhulu engu-RMB 13,100/ton, eyenzeka ngoJanuwari, kanye nephuzu eliphansi kakhulu lika-RMB 10,800/ton, elenzeke ngoJuni.

Izici eziyinhloko ezithinta imakethe yilezi.

I. Ukwenyuka kwempahla. Unyaka ka-2022 kusewunyaka wokunwetshwa okugxilile kwe-acrylonitrile yasekhaya, kusetshenziswa amasethi ama-2 ezitshalo ze-acrylonitrile ezinomthamo ophelele wamathani angu-390,000/ngonyaka, okuhlanganisa i-Lihua Yi 260,000 amathani ngonyaka kanye ne-Tianchen Qixiang amathani angu-130,000 ngonyaka. Nakuba umthamo wokuthunyelwa kwempahla kwamanye amazwe ukhuphuke ngo-12.1% unyaka nonyaka kusukela ngoJanuwari kuya kuMeyi, ukuhlinzekwa kanye nesidingo kusathanda ukukhula ngokuxega.

Okwesibili, ukuvela kabusha kwalolu bhubhane kwaholela ekwenyukeni kwengcindezi kumpahla yefekthri. Selokhu kwangena u-2022 bekulokhu kusesigabeni sokugcwala ngokweqile, amabhizinisi kanye nokusungulwa kwenhlalo kwashesha ukuqoqwa ngemuva komthelela wokuqubuka kokuvulwa kokuphela kwekota yokuqala, ukugcinwa kwempahla e-East China naseShandong kuma, kanti futhi bekukhona nendawo enkulu yokwehliswa nokuvalwa komfula, ngemuva kokuba buthaka kwesidingo, inqubomgomo ye-acryloon iqhubekile nokukhuphuka kwentengo.

Okwesithathu, ukukhula kwesidingo semboni engezansi kunomkhawulo. amathani angu-150,000/ngonyaka wesitshalo esisha se-LG Huizhou yengezwe ku-ABS engxenyeni yokuqala ka-2022, kusetshenziswa amathani angu-37,500 kuphela/ngonyaka wezinto ezingavuthiwe ze-acrylonitrile, ngakho ukukhula komthamo ongezansi komfula kungaphansi kokukhula kwezinto zokusetshenziswa, ngakho-ke ukuvulwa kwesilinganiso se-acrylonitrile kukhombisa ukuthi izitshalo ze-acrylonitrile zithengiswa cishe engxenyeni yokuqala yonyaka we-80% yezitshalo.

Engxenyeni yesibili ka-2022, imakethe yase-China ye-acrylonitrile izoqhubeka nesitayela sayo se-oscillation esisezingeni eliphansi, futhi indawo yokulungisa isiyonke ilinganiselwe. Ukwengeza, umthamo wokukhiqiza omusha we-acrylonitrile ande kakhulu engxenyeni yesibili yonyaka, futhi inani lempahla enikeziwe lingaqhubeka nokukhuphuka. Kodwa-ke, i-ABS kuphela kulindeleke ukuthi ibe namadivayisi amasha afakwe ekusebenzeni, isidingo esiphelele sinqunyelwe, ngaphansi kokungafani phakathi kokunikezwa nokufunwa, ukunikezwa kwe-acrylonitrile nokuphikisana kwesidingo kuzoqhubeka nokwanda, lapho ukuvulwa kwefekthri nakho kunzima ukuthuthukisa, amabhizinisi amakhulu amakhulu azothenga izinyathelo ezingalungile. Njengoba i-acrylonitrile iningi lingaphansi komugqa wezindleko, kusadingeka ukuthi unake umkhuba we-propylene yempahla eluhlaza. Izintengo zangaphambili zefekthri (izintengo zemakethe) zilindeleke ukuthi zibe kububanzi obungu-RMB 10,000-12,000/mt ezifundeni eziyinhloko, futhi iphuzu eliphezulu cishe lenzeka ngo-Agasti.

Emakethe ye-acrylonitrile yase-China engxenyeni yesibili ka-2022, i-feedstock propylene iyisici esiyinhloko esinomthelela ekuguquguqukeni kwentengo. Njengoba ukwanda okuphawulekayo kwamandla okukhiqiza engxenyeni yesibili yonyaka kuyisiphetho esibikezelwe, kunzima ukuba nethuba elibalulekile lokuphinda libuyele amanani engxenyeni yesibili. Ngakho-ke, intengo ye-propylene yempahla eluhlaza izoba yisici esibalulekile sokunquma intengo ye-acrylonitrile. Uma i-propylene ihlala eduze kwe-RMB 8,000/mt, kuzoba nzima ukuthi i-acrylonitrile iqhubeke nokuwa. Kodwa-ke, uma intengo ye-propylene iqhubeka nokuwa, intengo ye-acrylonitrile isazoba nethuba lokwehla ngaphansi kwengcindezi yokuthengiswa ngokweqile.

Kusukela ngo-2022 kuya ku-2023, i-China izokwengeza amathani ayizigidi ezingu-1.38/ngonyaka wezitshalo ze-acrylonitrile, futhi eziningi zazo zingamathuluzi asekelayo adidiyelwe ahlanganiswe ngamakhemikhali, okungenzeka ukuthi aqale ukusebenza. Kodwa-ke, i-ABS ezansi nomfula kuphela ekhula ngokushesha, njengama-acrylics ne-acrylamide asesimweni esisivivi, esizokwakha isimo sokugcwala ngokweqile. Kulindeleke ukuthi eminyakeni emithathu ezayo, ngokwanda komthamo we-acrylonitrile, inzuzo yezimboni iyancipha, futhi okunye ukufakwa okusha kubhekene nethuba lokubambezeleka nokushelfu.

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