Ushintsho lomthamo wokungenisa waseShayina kusukela ngo-2004-2021 lungabonakala ezigabeni ezine zomthamo wokungenisa we-PE waseChina kusukela ngo-2004, njengoba kuchazwe ngezansi.

Isigaba sokuqala singowezi-2004-2007, lapho isidingo saseShayina samapulasitiki sasiphansi futhi umthamo wokungenisa i-PE ugcina izinga eliphansi lokusebenza, futhi umthamo wokungenisa we-PE waseChina wawuphansi ngo-2008 lapho ukufakwa okusha kwasekhaya kwakugxilwe kakhulu futhi kuba nenkinga enkulu yezezimali.

Isigaba sesibili singowezi-2009-2016, ukuthengwa kwezimpahla zaseShayina kwe-PE kungene esigabeni sokukhula esizinzile ngemuva kokwenyuka okukhulu. Ngo-2009, ngenxa yokukhishwa kwebheyili yemali yangaphakathi neyangaphandle, i-liquidity yomhlaba wonke, ivolumu yohwebo jikelele yasekhaya yanda, isidingo sokuqagela sasishisa, ukuthengwa kwamanye amazwe kwanda kakhulu, ngezinga lokukhula lika-64.78%, okulandelwa ukuguqulwa kwezinga lokushintshisana ngo-2010, izinga lokushintshaniswa kwe-RMB laqhubeka libonga, lihambisana ne-ASEAN Free Trade Area Isivumelwano sezindleko zokungenisa sehlisiwe saqala ukusebenza Unyaka wezi-2013 uhlale uphezulu futhi izinga lokukhula lagcina ukuthambekela okuphezulu. Ngo-2014, amandla amasha okukhiqiza asekhaya e-PE anda kakhulu, futhi ukukhiqizwa kwempahla yasekhaya okuhloswe jikelele kwanda ngokushesha; ngo-2016, iNtshonalanga iphakamise ngokusemthethweni unswinyo e-Iran, futhi imithombo yase-Iranian yayizimisele kakhulu ukuthekelisa eYurophu ngamanani aphezulu, ngaleso sikhathi ukukhula kwevolumu yokungenisa yasekhaya yehla.

Isigaba sesithathu yi-2017-2020, ivolumu yokungenisa i-PE yaseChina iphinde yavuka kakhulu ngo-2017, umthamo wokukhiqiza we-PE wasekhaya nangaphandle uyakhula futhi ukukhiqizwa okugxilwe kakhulu phesheya kwezilwandle, i-China, njengezwe elikhulu elidla i-PE, namanje i-export ebalulekile yokukhululwa kwamandla okukhiqiza emhlabeni. Ngo-2017 selokhu izinga lokukhula kwevolumu yokungenisa kwe-PE yaseChina lenyuke kakhulu, kwaze kwaba ngu-2020, kuye kwethulwa imishini emisha yaseChina yokucwenga neyokukhanya ye-hydrocarbon entsha, yasekhaya Kodwa-ke, ngokombono wokusetshenziswa, isidingo saphesheya kwezilwandle sithikamezeka kakhulu “ubhubhane olusha lomqhele”, kuyilapho isimo sokunqanda ubhubhane lwaseShayina sikhuphuka futhi izinsiza zikhuphuka kakhulu, njengoba izinsizakusebenza zokuvimbela nokulawula ubhubhane ziyanda. ukuphakela imakethe yaseShayina ngamanani aphansi, ngakho-ke umthamo wokungenisa we-PE waseChina ugcina ukukhula okuphakathi nokuphezulu, futhi ngo-2020 umthamo wokungenisa we-PE waseChina ufinyelela kumathani ayizigidi eziyi-18.53. Kodwa-ke, izici ezishukumisayo zokwenyuka kwevolumu yokungenisa kwe-PE kulesi sigaba ngokuyinhloko ezokusetshenziswa kwezimpahla esikhundleni sokuqhutshwa isidingo esiphuthumayo, futhi ingcindezi yokuncintisana evela ezimakethe zombili zasekhaya nezaphesheya iyavela kancane kancane.

Ngo-2021, inkambiso yokungenisa kwe-PE yaseChina ingena esigabeni esisha, futhi ngokwezibalo zamasiko, ivolumu yokungenisa kwe-PE yaseChina izoba amathani ayizigidi eziyi-14.59 ngo-2021, yehle ngamathani ayizigidi ezingu-3.93 noma ngo-21.29% kusukela ngo-2020. intengo ephambene ye-polyethylene ngaphakathi nangaphandle kwemakethe, umthamo wokungenisa we-PE wasekhaya uzoncishiswa kakhulu ngo-2021. I-2022 amandla okukhiqiza e-China azoqhubeka nokukhula, iwindi le-arbitrage ngaphakathi nangaphandle kwemakethe kusenzima ukuvula, ivolumu yokungenisa i-PE yamazwe ngamazwe izohlala iphansi, futhi ivolumu yokungenisa ye-PE yaseChina ingase ingene esiteshini esiphansi esikhathini esizayo.

Kusukela ngo-2004-2021 ivolumu yokuthekelisa ye-PE yase-China yohlobo ngalunye, inani eliphelele lokungenisa kwe-China PE liphansi futhi i-amplitude inkulu.

Kusukela ngo-2004 kuya ku-2008, umthamo wokuthekelisa we-PE waseChina wawuphakathi kwamathani ayi-100,000. Ngemuva kukaJuni 2009, isilinganiso sikazwelonke sesaphulelo sentela yokuthekelisa kwamanye amapulasitiki kanye nemikhiqizo yawo, njengamanye ama-ethylene polymers amise okwesisekelo, senyuselwe ku-13%, futhi umdlandla wasekhaya wokuthekelisa we-PE wanda.

Ngo-2010-2011, ukwanda kokuthunyelwa kwe-PE yasekhaya kwakusobala, kodwa ngemva kwalokho, ukuthekelisa kwe-PE yasekhaya kuphinde kwabhekana ne-bottleneck, naphezu komthamo wokukhiqiza we-PE wasekhaya okhulayo, kusenegebe elikhulu ekuhlinzekeni kwe-PE yase-China, futhi kunzima ukuba nokwanda okukhulu kokuthekelisa okusekelwe ezindlekweni, isidingo sekhwalithi kanye nezingqinamba zesimo sokuthutha.

Kusukela ngo-2011 kuya ku-2020, ivolumu yokuthunyelwa kwe-PE yaseChina yancipha kancane, futhi umthamo wayo wokuthekelisa wawuphakathi kwamathani angama-200,000-300,000. Ngo-2021, inani lokuthekelisa kwe-PE yaseChina lenyuka, futhi inani eliphelele lokuthunyelwa kwempahla kwamanye amazwe lafinyelela kumathani angama-510,000, okuwukunyuka kwamathani angama-260,000 uma kuqhathaniswa no-2020, okuwukunyuka ngo-104% unyaka nonyaka.

Isizathu siwukuthi ngemva kuka-2020, izitshalo ezinkulu zaseChina zokucwenga kanye ne-hydrocarbon ezilula zizokwethulwa phakathi nendawo, futhi amandla okukhiqiza azokhishwa ngempumelelo ngo-2021, futhi ukukhiqizwa kwe-PE yaseChina kuzokhula, ikakhulukazi izinhlobo ze-HDPE, ngezinsiza ezengeziwe ezihlelelwe izitshalo ezintsha kanye nokwanda kwengcindezi yokuncintisana kwemakethe. Ukunikezwa kuyaqina, futhi ukuthengiswa kwezinsiza ze-PE yaseShayina eNingizimu Melika nakwezinye izindawo kuyanda.

Ukukhula okuqhubekayo kwamandla okukhiqiza kuyinkinga enkulu okufanele kubhekwane nayo ngasohlangothini lokuhlinzekwa kwe-PE yase-China. Okwamanje, ngenxa yezinkinga zezindleko, isidingo sekhwalithi kanye nezimo zokuhamba, kusenzima ukuthumela i-PE yasekhaya, kodwa ngokukhula okuqhubekayo kwamandla okukhiqiza asekhaya, kubalulekile ukulwela ukuthengiswa phesheya kwezilwandle. Ingcindezi yokuncintisana kwe-PE emhlabeni jikelele esikhathini esizayo iya ngokuya iba nzima, futhi iphethini yokuhlinzeka nokufunwa ezimakethe zasekhaya nezangaphandle zisadinga ukunakwa okwengeziwe.